Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.4% on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0e6b7dd750a27a3cea9ef2b84c87cdf0496355d2b77f9651a257ff28e42cb98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 39c | 3,987$1,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,421.4 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 36c | 3,754$1,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,390.79 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 12c | 2,308$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,041.38 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce59…eb51backed Yes | 5c | 1,903$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,802.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +851.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 28c | 644.27$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.63 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 393.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.36 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 376.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.27 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 4c | 368$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.28 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 64c | 364.98$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.7 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +88%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 250.25$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.62 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 6c | 223.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.65 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6577…2660backed Yes | 65c | 215.81$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.53 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 6c | 215.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.77 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 79c | 204.99$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.29 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…59e9backed No | 48c | 200.06$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4f…1238backed Yes | 57c | 183.95$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…2483backed Yes | 60c | 178.32$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 38c | 164$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.78 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…137bbacked No | 47c | 158.41$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf54f…729ebacked Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 130.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.5 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…60c8backed Yes | 12c | 108.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.05 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 108$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.96 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5bec…56d0backed Yes | 61c | 81.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd02d…17e8backed Yes | 66c | 81.1$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab24…8c8ebacked Yes | 60c | 68.73$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9a…de87backed Yes | 18c | 67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.05 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 45cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 53c | 51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06c6…4162backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 66c | 49.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e32…1e4bbacked No | 48c | 48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…93b4backed Yes | 52c | 46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafed…9cb0backed Yes | 52c | 44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5c…3ed3backed No | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…d826backed Yes | 57c | 34.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…136bbacked No | 43c | 29.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.4% on June 13?this page
- Will Trump's approval rating be 47.0% or higher on June 13?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.5% and 45.9% on June 13?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on June 13?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.5% and 46.9% on June 13?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be less than 45.0% on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.