Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump give Elon Musk a nickname before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb97cf1eaeabfec95d9d5de21c5d8a48ca39163bcfb6e6e89e6b0bb1d204cf85e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 5c | 6,905$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.9 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 2c | 1,965$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 1,852$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.98 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 2c | 1,635$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 14c | 1,339$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.12 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 6c | 1,209$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.96 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…0400backed Yes | 9c | 1,132$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.88 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 1,034$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 8c | 758.31$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 12c | 733.67$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.73 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd62a…2dcfbacked Yes | 5c | 629.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +212.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 8c | 614.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 4c | 595.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8af5…36afbacked Yes | 6c | 572.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 10c | 450$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8870…5259backed Yes | 5c | 370.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 7c | 360.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4023…2241backed Yes | 9c | 342.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 4c | 307.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe561…a68dbacked Yes | 5c | 287.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x325d…bafdbacked Yes | 6c | 260.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 5c | 207.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4c…3486backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 12c | 169$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked Yes | 13c | 159.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…c557backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 19c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.