Tennis · resolved market
ATP Cincinnati - Shelton vs. Bautista Agut
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6fd41e46bfe05bde33ecfa36b648113571d907bc01d5d1e5b5d35de352b06ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sheltonof Shelton, Bautista Agut
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $624,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $555,280
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $624,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ef4…412cbacked Bautista Agut | 19c | 402,757$75,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75,122.27 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked Shelton | 80c | 49,275$39,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,854.96 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Shelton | 80c | 12,497$9,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,499.4 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Bautista Agut | 12c | 8,053$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Bautista Agut | 16c | 7,000$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120 | 761 | 46.6%355 W · 406 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bautista Agut | 16c | 6,516$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.6 | 158 | 32.9%52 W · 106 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Bautista Agut | 12c | 5,095$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.01 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4e…2f7ebacked Bautista Agut | 16c | 3,460$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Bautista Agut | 18c | 1,822$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.63 | 223 | 37.7%84 W · 139 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…3e01backed Bautista Agut | 15c | 1,586$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.35 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80b1…f64abacked Bautista Agut | 19c | 1,290$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed Bautista Agut | 17c | 1,005$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.65 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Bautista Agut | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.19per pick | 26cpaid | -77%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Bautista Agut | 17c | 999.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +9.2wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +2,177.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Bautista Agut | 19c | 968.47$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.01 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Bautista Agut | 24c | 959.38$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.25 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Bautista Agut | 17c | 579.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Bautista Agut | 17c | 572.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…67fdbacked Bautista Agut | 18c | 560$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…3b1fbacked Bautista Agut | 18c | 552.46$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.29 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0b…2305backed Bautista Agut | 14c | 526.62$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.83 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…8d76backed Bautista Agut | 25c | 501.49$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.46 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Bautista Agut | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Shelton | 78c | 400$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Bautista Agut | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Bautista Agut | 17c | 384.47$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.95 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…6e98backed Bautista Agut | 17c | 218$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7580…cb71backed Bautista Agut | 18c | 210.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Bautista Agut | 17c | 206$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f47…120dbacked Bautista Agut | 23c | 201$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…60e0backed Bautista Agut | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Bautista Agut | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Bautista Agut | 18c | 170$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…d3d0backed Bautista Agut | 17c | 163.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…e494backed Bautista Agut | 9c | 118.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 360 | 40%144 W · 216 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c4…a92dbacked Bautista Agut | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…403dbacked Bautista Agut | 14c | 72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0682…fd43backed Shelton | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.