Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48c69b3d82e37d4169c8bbfe574558391bed9e52e612374608863faf28c41130
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,130
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,130 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 1c | 11,045$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.48 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 4c | 5,376$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.57 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 6c | 2,171$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.29 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…250ebacked Yes | 64c | 1,876$1,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,206.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdef…010bbacked Yes | 58c | 1,822$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87db…d6adbacked Yes | 29c | 1,478$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 14c | 1,142$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.12 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1f…34babacked No | 58c | 1,058$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.73 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 44c | 779.08$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.1 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…38e2backed No | 23c | 732.32$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.35 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 11c | 700$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 6c | 600$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked Yes | 59c | 543.18$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.38 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…3cc9backed No | 62c | 521.81$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…60e0backed Yes | 64c | 487.29$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.84 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 14c | 424.53$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.09 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 49c | 381$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.61 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0347…e0e5backed No | 6c | 375.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.83 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked No | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.5 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed No | 35c | 292.98$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.6 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…4f3abacked No | 55c | 250$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94c3…76d3backed No | 27c | 184.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 19cpaid | +254.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92a7…85c0backed No | 55c | 181.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.02 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d9ebbacked Yes | 36c | 163.41$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.43 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc354…de11backed Yes | 61c | 154.72$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 31c | 134.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 43c | 121$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 56c | 104$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked Yes | 77c | 103.61$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.78 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 68c | 93.33$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.33 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f57…e8b4backed Yes | 64c | 87.48$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.38 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…6dbebacked Yes | 42c | 79.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 69c | 61.04$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 57c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…aa35backed Yes | 57c | 43.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 43c | 35.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052f…5ef8backed No | 48c | 34.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1837…c705backed No | 65c | 32.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 43c | 31.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f7…9c2fbacked Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf343…793cbacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 56c | 23.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd791…b6e2backed No | 70c | 20.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff63…a2f8backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d0…f451backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.