TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 ATP Cincinnati?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$124,002
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$128,619

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,002 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37e4…c991backed Yes37c48,724$17,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,846.6722037.7%83 W · 137 L+1.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e0b…9e5cbacked Yes63c10,143$6,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,752.7313934.5%48 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed No37c9,999$3,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,699.6314345.5%65 W · 78 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2873…ad0abacked No64c8,106$5,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,187.951457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed No62c7,508$4,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,666.618643%37 W · 49 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-23.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b62…6137backed Yes38c7,000$2,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,3401656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e94…6243backed Yes43c6,373$2,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,647.9517833.1%59 W · 119 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Yes36c5,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,200862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick40cpaid+37.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No64c5,000$3,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,189.995545.5%25 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked No63c3,000$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,889.9564755.2%357 W · 290 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0709…f2edbacked Yes33c2,321$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,552.948453.6%45 W · 39 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d76…9168backed No63c2,291$1,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,443.137540.8%153 W · 222 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe14…a1aebacked Yes36c2,200$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,408366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.38per pick28cpaid+103.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked Yes35c2,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3003135.5%11 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bae…e6c5backed No64c1,778$1,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,136.7317818%32 W · 146 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-39.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Yes36c1,564$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001.078348.2%40 W · 43 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xac53…6133backed Yes36c1,500$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9665030%15 W · 35 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-37.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed No62c1,356$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.916140.4%65 W · 96 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked No61c1,340$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.668640.7%35 W · 51 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd3…adf8backed Yes38c1,314$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+32.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x27a9…8781backed Yes39c1,194$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.3715439.6%61 W · 93 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6fe…b77fbacked Yes36c1,154$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.593542.9%15 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bee…ca01backed Yes36c1,065$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.9512050%60 W · 60 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5159…d7aebacked No66c1,006$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.331850%9 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes36c1,000$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64081938.9%319 W · 500 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc88e…f3e1backed No62c999.99$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.991225%3 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77fb…849ebacked No61c965$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.652817.9%5 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e85…1ccdbacked Yes31c950$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.262123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No15c884.06$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.0211,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86e6…63d8backed Yes38c875.41$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.753745.9%17 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0aa4…dbc5backed Yes37c855.54$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.9912335%43 W · 80 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Yes36c849.98$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.993158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+25.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed No36c827.22$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.541,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2437…3906backed Yes69c781.02$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.021338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes37c700$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44152750.3%265 W · 262 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd19e…fabbbacked Yes37c651$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6cd…972abacked No64c632.78$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.48425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-57.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce08…c8dcbacked Yes71c619.19$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.19757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes36c607.26$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.7914540.7%59 W · 86 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf557…18debacked No65c584.62$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3806376.2%48 W · 15 L+11.0wins+0.17per pick59cpaid+26.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xbd02…60e0backed Yes36c500$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3204845.8%22 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes35c500$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32528141.6%117 W · 164 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed Yes63c490$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.732141.1%132 W · 189 L-1.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Yes38c450$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.51080%8 W · 2 L+4.0wins+0.40per pick40cpaid+76.7%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xaf3c…f5ffbacked Yes47c430.53$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.1811859.3%70 W · 48 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+17.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed No64c420.31$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26925352.2%132 W · 121 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed No66c403.68$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.5189850.1%450 W · 448 L-20.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6c0…722ebacked No64c398$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.72540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-33.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b5a…7618backed Yes37c328$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.0325330%76 W · 177 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0111…0463backed Yes30c300$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2103161.3%19 W · 12 L+5.9wins+0.19per pick42cpaid+47.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xcbaa…59b8backed Yes36c279.5$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.8832448.1%156 W · 168 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef13…53d2backed Yes36c278.69$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.3625043.2%108 W · 142 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa6f…7e67backed No68c256.96$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.15650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc12b…8f76backed Yes39c248.72$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b4cabacked Yes26c211.31$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.3728828.5%82 W · 206 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9afd…3028backed No70c208.92$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.02425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-40.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8e9…ad83backed Yes36c208.33$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.33333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09ce…ddd7backed Yes37c200$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1269247.8%44 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x089e…6e0ebacked Yes37c195.78$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.34666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+73.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x32a7…3e01backed Yes37c190$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.82846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed No61c163.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.98933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-40.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x76d9…ef73backed No74c162.16$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf26d…53ccbacked Yes37c162.14$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.15666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+22.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x731b…bdcabacked No63c158.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002871.4%20 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed No62c158.06$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982263.6%14 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed No64c150$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969245.7%42 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf23a…df6fbacked Yes32c150$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10251252.1%267 W · 245 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4451…fcbebacked No74c150$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.63652.8%19 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x939c…ad45backed Yes33c149.47$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.473842.1%16 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b78…df3bbacked No70c139.99$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61bf…647ebacked No67c139.39$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.39185.6%1 W · 17 L-3.6wins-0.20per pick25cpaid-89.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7bb4…acb6backed No63c137.59$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.687356.2%41 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed Yes79c134$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.441353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4d4…6cc1backed Yes38c131.58$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.58450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes53c124$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.121,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe394…289cbacked No73c117.84$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.4228451.1%145 W · 139 L+8.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed Yes22c117.46$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.624940.8%20 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88a6…d4a9backed No78c115.8$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed No64c113.89$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.898052.5%42 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes38c102.63$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.136756.7%38 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb24e…a2e5backed Yes39c102.56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.561735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce4e…c56fbacked Yes39c100.21$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.13933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50ba…5435backed Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick30cpaid+82.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbcd2…6ab0backed Yes36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642729.6%8 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e37…03d2backed Yes38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bb1…1208backed Yes77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232416.7%4 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-75.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb41a…3a25backed Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ce5…3b06backed Yes28c100$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick32cpaid+96.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf339…e010backed Yes36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+24.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Yes55c93.49$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7931255.4%173 W · 139 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid0%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ecc…8422backed Yes38c93$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.661915.8%3 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick12cpaid-58.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d8c…757abacked No44c92.53$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.31560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfce2…37e4backed Yes30c74.81$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.532100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+199.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0aaa…8c2bbacked Yes38c73.68$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.683036.7%11 W · 19 L-4.3wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-23.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No65c69.29$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.044459.1%26 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0cb4…9040backed Yes39c64.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.1742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bf2…85b7backed Yes39c64.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.18858%51 W · 37 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6fb…2b2abacked Yes36c60.75$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.884475%33 W · 11 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+21.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0a17…5791backed Yes29c58.02$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+245.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa20c…d091backed Yes29c56$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.762100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+148.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.