Us Politics · resolved market
Vivek out as Head of DOGE before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b3d85dbc4ccbff370c2e1c7b02336860dce4eebe4a22aee07feb432afe635d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $142,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked No | 44c | 20,784$9,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,196.3 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x578c…9661backed Yes | 23c | 13,573$3,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,467.31 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 0c | 11,136$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 71c | 8,980$6,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,361.11 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 22c | 4,522$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,537.69 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb16e…e2d6backed No | 70c | 4,498$3,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,137 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.52per pick | 72cpaid | -75%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked No | 77c | 4,301$3,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,292.25 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 77c | 3,857$2,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,978.73 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf904…85ecbacked No | 33c | 3,681$1,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,231.07 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed No | 78c | 2,779$2,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,181.05 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 40c | 2,308$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,384.95 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3997…e141backed No | 11c | 2,233$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1545…e2b2backed Yes | 22c | 2,218$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,730.27 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 5c | 2,212$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.21 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 70c | 1,572$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.48 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 14c | 1,485$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,281 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked No | 13c | 1,112$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.83 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +10.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 70c | 760$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed No | 34c | 615$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.62 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 37c | 600$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213a…57f2backed No | 9c | 570.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 80c | 569.98$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.6 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb37c…ed29backed Yes | 21c | 562.51$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +213.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 29c | 497.85$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed No | 79c | 374.07$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.5 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 29c | 349.27$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.98 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0820…e937backed Yes | 22c | 346.32$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.32 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86ab…5fb4backed Yes | 30c | 335$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 35c | 328.27$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.89 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 60c | 319.06$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.8 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7215…bd1dbacked Yes | 21c | 254.79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d6…0489backed No | 71c | 240$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.4 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2811…7690backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad7…86bfbacked Yes | 22c | 227.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.19 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0ef5backed Yes | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.82 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8522…e26fbacked No | 12c | 180.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed Yes | 79c | 159.99$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 83 | 77.1%64 W · 19 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…9026backed Yes | 25c | 130.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.85 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 125$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.68 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked No | 13c | 123$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fb…5215backed Yes | 67c | 120$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked Yes | 17c | 110.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.39 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…c319backed No | 74c | 110$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 73cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…76febacked No | 70c | 108.64$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.7 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…7a9fbacked Yes | 19c | 108.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +159.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3844…d930backed Yes | 32c | 108.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…60e0backed No | 80c | 101.91$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.51 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e18…6e3dbacked Yes | 40c | 100.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…334abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a85…37c8backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b73…4b87backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa89…85b2backed No | 80c | 90.06$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes | 31c | 78.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 54c | 78.33$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdba2…099cbacked Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5a…acaebacked Yes | 26c | 65.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -65%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2331…f935backed No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…c8dcbacked No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3218…76b1backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906b…fd3cbacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed Yes | 28c | 52.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f1…6485backed No | 48c | 51.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…8749backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f21…62efbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 79c | 49.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…0b75backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c12…2b11backed No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa2…b94fbacked No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b07…9d1abacked No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed No | 79c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…d251backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 64cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…24febacked No | 76c | 13.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.