World Politics · resolved market
Will Brazilian president Lula announce re-election run by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b81da60298dacc418a54d3a8931db966439cb6a77cc54cac8d9b80313ba3450
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed No | 70c | 896.48$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.81 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27eb…d433backed Yes | 71c | 858.03$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 17c | 821.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.74 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +15.3wins | +0.21per pick | 15cpaid | +188.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…f137backed Yes | 60c | 666.54$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.54 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +28%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…24babacked Yes | 25c | 544.65$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.54per pick | 21cpaid | +425.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 31c | 400$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 27c | 330.49$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.06 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 72c | 330.09$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.58 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…60e0backed Yes | 25c | 318.98$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.67 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 33c | 250$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7478…4003backed No | 71c | 219.27$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3140…76d9backed No | 64c | 212.63$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.82 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…1555backed No | 64c | 171.26$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88f2…54acbacked Yes | 23c | 154.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +343%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95ba…3a5cbacked Yes | 36c | 124.97$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 79c | 109.93$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.74 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f05…ef15backed Yes | 38c | 106.52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d41…4d0abacked Yes | 29c | 98.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +239.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7950…80e4backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06d4…8264backed Yes | 21c | 66.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.35 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f25…4d4bbacked No | 72c | 65.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…d78ebacked No | 74c | 65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…08a5backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 70c | 55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2633…67b1backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…d79cbacked Yes | 23c | 43.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +331.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f7…93a4backed Yes | 38c | 41.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6050…5a19backed Yes | 37c | 40.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +168.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 67c | 40.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 58c | 38.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 66c | 29.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe424…0d1abacked No | 70c | 21.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6374…0d31backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9e…49b3backed No | 69c | 17.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.