Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Joao Fonseca vs Miomir Kecmanovic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c9cd312ac1cc5412da089bbc98ce3877ba4c48100e372778bed88b92af1ee83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fonsecaof Fonseca, Kecmanovic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Kecmanovic | 36c | 27,353$9,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,977.11 | 220 | 37.7%83 W · 137 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Fonseca | 61c | 22,499$13,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,799.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Fonseca | 63c | 6,366$4,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,356.48 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Kecmanovic | 41c | 6,000$2,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,459.41 | 672 | 49.6%333 W · 339 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Kecmanovic | 12c | 4,509$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.42 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…5c93backed Fonseca | 64c | 2,988$1,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.61 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Kecmanovic | 30c | 2,586$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.6 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Kecmanovic | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843d…e617backed Fonseca | 64c | 2,437$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.38 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc56f…75efbacked Fonseca | 60c | 1,782$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.8 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…dbc5backed Kecmanovic | 15c | 1,026$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 123 | 35%43 W · 80 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4d…69e7backed Fonseca | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -5.5wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -40%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Fonseca | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Kecmanovic | 42c | 999.98$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.99 | 365 | 40.8%149 W · 216 L | -13.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Kecmanovic | 38c | 998.72$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.48 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca1…4268backed Kecmanovic | 8c | 812.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 158 | 31%49 W · 109 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…60e0backed Fonseca | 68c | 800$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.5 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…d3d0backed Fonseca | 67c | 629.78$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.15 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Fonseca | 64c | 530.14$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.95 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Fonseca | 76c | 519$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.94 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kecmanovic | 19c | 464.2$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.26 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Kecmanovic | 22c | 450$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Kecmanovic | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Kecmanovic | 37c | 400$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…63d8backed Kecmanovic | 42c | 321.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.98 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Kecmanovic | 41c | 306.78$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.78 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Fonseca | 60c | 282$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.57 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Fonseca | 59c | 281.33$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.35 | 174 | 45.4%79 W · 95 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Kecmanovic | 36c | 273.63$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.51 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Kecmanovic | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Kecmanovic | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Fonseca | 61c | 246.41$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.1 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Kecmanovic | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d76…9168backed Kecmanovic | 11c | 197.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 375 | 40.8%153 W · 222 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Fonseca | 62c | 142$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.96 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe394…289cbacked Kecmanovic | 38c | 140$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 284 | 51.1%145 W · 139 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Fonseca | 68c | 128.83$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Fonseca | 48c | 128.38$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.76 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Fonseca | 66c | 120.68$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Fonseca | 62c | 118.96$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd2…6ab0backed Fonseca | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…6e98backed Fonseca | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Kecmanovic | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.19per pick | 26cpaid | -77%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c9…5152backed Kecmanovic | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Kecmanovic | 28c | 90.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Fonseca | 65c | 86.13$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Kecmanovic | 36c | 78.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…5228backed Fonseca | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b2…273bbacked Fonseca | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ce…cb62backed Kecmanovic | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c40…ea3dbacked Kecmanovic | 30c | 65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Kecmanovic | 37c | 54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Kecmanovic | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,339 | 46.6%1,090 W · 1,249 L | +55.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Kecmanovic | 38c | 43.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d4…f1e4backed Fonseca | 58c | 41.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Fonseca | 63c | 30.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Fonseca | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed Fonseca | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.29per pick | 50cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…8c2bbacked Fonseca | 59c | 18.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…f067backed Fonseca | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.