Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Chasiv Yar before October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a011ae478add880492d6d8e5aa98213405b7cec1e1cb34b84bf4c1bad055b2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $137,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $154,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d23…8f86backed Yes | 24c | 30,111$7,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,253.54 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 42cpaid | -84%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 74c | 25,783$19,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,663.92 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…6492backed No | 80c | 13,752$10,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,767.64 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…44a5backed No | 80c | 9,963$7,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,992.55 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6af7…0ff1backed No | 77c | 6,407$4,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,482.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 22c | 5,349$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152.02 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x540b…e4e7backed Yes | 22c | 4,059$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fd83backed Yes | 21c | 3,799$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 18c | 3,366$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.54 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 23c | 3,125$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.02 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed No | 75c | 3,039$2,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.01 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +14.4wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7108…7492backed No | 76c | 2,693$2,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.27 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 23c | 2,554$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.05 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8272…14bbbacked Yes | 12c | 2,496$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.69 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xece1…2b04backed Yes | 28c | 2,124$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -57%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29eb…0fc0backed Yes | 23c | 2,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x934d…9778backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed No | 72c | 1,993$1,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.64 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +40%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7556…2be1backed Yes | 28c | 1,398$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a71…3c62backed No | 73c | 1,065$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.82 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +67%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f5…04b6backed No | 76c | 1,041$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…b063backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Yes | 12c | 963$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.04 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -70%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1332…dc82backed Yes | 16c | 955.56$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8178…32d8backed Yes | 25c | 874.69$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.82 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81f3…1043backed Yes | 28c | 857.14$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…59d0backed Yes | 24c | 856.1$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 21c | 828.66$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.55 | 108 | 12%13 W · 95 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe384…bc6bbacked Yes | 3c | 755.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94f8…e851backed No | 75c | 751.81$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…6cecbacked Yes | 14c | 729.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14fc…d4eabacked Yes | 19c | 712.7$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.13 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd1…b557backed Yes | 21c | 683.6$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.56 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…bdabbacked No | 75c | 682.44$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 19c | 600$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…d9adbacked Yes | 23c | 483.61$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 76c | 467$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 77c | 466.99$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.03 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7d…3f04backed Yes | 22c | 445.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 17c | 441$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.95 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +85%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68fd…9d55backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 4c | 383.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0513…4e8cbacked Yes | 16c | 367.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d29…f683backed Yes | 24c | 360.12$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.24 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x611c…070dbacked No | 77c | 358.71$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 77c | 259.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.78 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc654…8d09backed Yes | 19c | 217.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7db4…5586backed No | 78c | 202.65$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21d…0742backed Yes | 25c | 194.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f9…bb57backed Yes | 11c | 161.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes | 24c | 152.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x88db…4228backed No | 76c | 149.79$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +7.0wins | +0.28per pick | 40cpaid | +219.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5521…5d75backed Yes | 24c | 145.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df7…156fbacked Yes | 22c | 139.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e94…7670backed No | 78c | 130$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x273b…e2b0backed No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f4…aa32backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked No | 75c | 107.59$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 69 | 71%49 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcec3…53a1backed No | 79c | 106.91$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x723d…f127backed Yes | 24c | 104.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce7…27e7backed Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f9…821dbacked Yes | 23c | 102.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 26c | 101.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaec…665bbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0513…2157backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…9c22backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 21c | 85.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d16…a1b6backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f0…61c3backed Yes | 26c | 75.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…66a7backed Yes | 30c | 72.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed No | 78c | 69.1$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x343d…cd2ebacked No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x70b7…f9f9backed Yes | 25c | 62.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf06c…2da7backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +125.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8b…6c00backed Yes | 33c | 60.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…5e60backed Yes | 22c | 55.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef0…f1a9backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…b289backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 22c | 49.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…257dbacked Yes | 22c | 46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…a3ebbacked No | 76c | 41.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…26ecbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…9a98backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…fc51backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5642…60c8backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 66cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31f1…382fbacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac3…d4ebbacked No | 75c | 21.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbde…5976backed No | 78c | 20.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d5…682bbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c20…fdc5backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +135.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda97…3584backed No | 78c | 17.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1243…dbf7backed No | 75c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6349…4072backed No | 77c | 14.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.