Weather · resolved market
Will Beryl hit the US as a tropical storm?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86bb6ae2c5d6ae0cf0efd9b4fcea71c57116b2738213c0f93575ef1ebf190bd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,670
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,670 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…f083backed No | 80c | 7,781$6,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,582.65 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +242.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x323b…6ed9backed Yes | 32c | 4,466$1,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,428.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b50…50e4backed No | 69c | 2,253$1,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.43 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d35…0a41backed Yes | 5c | 1,971$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5405…3d7cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,539$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…b637backed Yes | 23c | 1,206$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…fcf5backed Yes | 49c | 1,029$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 13c | 980$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.5 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2736…3625backed No | 69c | 831.74$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf786…73ccbacked No | 76c | 692.33$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 78c | 383.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.68 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked Yes | 38c | 347.61$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…aa28backed Yes | 24c | 347.41$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3c…4325backed Yes | 18c | 282.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa355…aba6backed Yes | 18c | 257.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 66c | 254.39$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.55 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce93…0f23backed Yes | 35c | 144$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…4289backed No | 65c | 135.38$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x980f…5b55backed Yes | 24c | 125.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 26c | 123$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6445…4ec0backed Yes | 35c | 120.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c31…ea4bbacked Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6e…96ffbacked Yes | 38c | 54.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fda…26cabacked Yes | 49c | 51.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…95abbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…095dbacked Yes | 36c | 46.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92fb…4ffebacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +46%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d8…c38ebacked No | 65c | 26.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f6…6fc3backed Yes | 79c | 25.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437d…c17dbacked No | 80c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.