Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump visit Israel before August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d420ef0e19e4e10ce982d98dd4cd27a4a18053ea83ce9eb06e97388f893a42e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,960
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,960 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,387$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc74c…1076backed Yes | 12c | 1,986$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.93 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c5…1c1fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,580$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…8a13backed Yes | 1c | 1,384$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 3c | 1,281$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,010$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 16c | 906.55$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.92 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4327…0970backed Yes | 24c | 817.95$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddd6…6682backed Yes | 10c | 555.2$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca7…d86fbacked No | 75c | 530$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 518$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 5c | 375$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 80c | 366$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.2 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…f021backed Yes | 4c | 309.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57cf…137cbacked No | 70c | 227.06$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1419…72fdbacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2564…1b02backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked No | 76c | 198.75$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1e…1c17backed Yes | 14c | 181.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 78c | 154.04$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea61…8f05backed Yes | 22c | 124.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 72c | 118.94$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 15c | 110$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb068…4befbacked Yes | 20c | 102.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe76a…9e82backed Yes | 19c | 98.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ee…8836backed Yes | 16c | 82.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cea…48bcbacked Yes | 19c | 69.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a15…5b62backed Yes | 19c | 65.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…cddabacked Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2e…4723backed Yes | 27c | 49.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 70c | 33.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.