Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump tweet less than 3 times Dec 6-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd98db52e63443f7de6a09f565afc2151dd1d987ac9b18bd04cc7b83e313760ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed No | 63c | 3,743$2,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,353.85 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…2429backed Yes | 51c | 3,080$1,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,509.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…b528backed No | 49c | 3,080$1,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,509.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54af…bbfabacked Yes | 59c | 1,602$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e87…4cf9backed No | 68c | 1,473$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2a…a436backed Yes | 17c | 1,343$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.34 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b1b…166bbacked No | 63c | 1,097$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…8391backed No | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…ed60backed No | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x788a…34c1backed No | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6217…a07fbacked No | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc58…19cebacked Yes | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…6bcfbacked Yes | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3498…0724backed Yes | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf703…5d9cbacked Yes | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf982…1c15backed Yes | 57c | 999.81$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.04 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 44c | 937.76$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35aa…94bcbacked Yes | 64c | 912.28$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3510…2238backed Yes | 56c | 866.24$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.64 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…5512backed Yes | 22c | 746.92$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.25 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…cae2backed Yes | 42c | 686.29$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x668f…d2d7backed No | 66c | 609.62$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 34c | 540.13$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.2 | 84 | 23.8%20 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f7…10c0backed Yes | 69c | 457.85$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.93 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed No | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48da…0419backed Yes | 65c | 400$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed No | 40c | 392.3$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.25 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a32…ae7bbacked Yes | 48c | 387$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.88 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe5…66c2backed Yes | 13c | 372.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.85 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bac…f238backed Yes | 36c | 305.14$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 12c | 276.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.39 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 265.03$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.48 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed Yes | 29c | 263.75$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.23 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…24febacked Yes | 14c | 255.17$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.44 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 38c | 251.24$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.08 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 28c | 248.35$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.66 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 52c | 245$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed No | 11c | 225.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +10.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x75da…4688backed Yes | 9c | 222$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.02 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 58c | 219.61$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.93 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 7c | 183.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.38 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 73c | 181.53$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.81 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c31…5f1bbacked Yes | 34c | 175.15$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.26 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc12a…429abacked Yes | 57c | 173.68$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked No | 58c | 172.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…ceabbacked No | 59c | 171.61$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.25 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +61%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 16c | 169.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.66 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66b6…c841backed Yes | 58c | 165.1$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf59…fefdbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25cc…3601backed No | 51c | 149$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 34c | 143.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 40c | 139.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 16c | 135.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.62 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…8508backed Yes | 57c | 133.94$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.94 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…1ea1backed Yes | 15c | 129.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +556.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5023…3f6abacked Yes | 9c | 125.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +104%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 14c | 103.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.2 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x979e…3d11backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79a9…1e1dbacked Yes | 33c | 95.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 57c | 83.93$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…8496backed Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked No | 49c | 78.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…ca5fbacked Yes | 29c | 75.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…3458backed No | 66c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x774f…ea29backed Yes | 37c | 52.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaef…6234backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f0…d070backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x867c…87a5backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed No | 44c | 37.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…8fe0backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…23c6backed Yes | 58c | 34.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 33c | 31.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…4f34backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…dd63backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e6…1d2bbacked No | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa64a…21dabacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf285…a3b4backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b4…66babacked Yes | 50c | 24.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad9…ee23backed Yes | 45c | 22.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3264…9a6ebacked No | 52c | 22.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20f7…635ebacked Yes | 57c | 22.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…bb92backed No | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…e99bbacked No | 61c | 19.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump tweet less than 3 times Dec 6-13?this page
- Will Trump tweet 11-14 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Trump tweet 15-19 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Trump tweet 3-4 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Trump tweet 5-6 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Trump tweet 7-8 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Trump tweet 9-10 times Dec 6-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.