Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump tweet 5-6 times Dec 6-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68d2f52a5446b7cb93dde3cea4da7abf9083ab74b0112953946ca23e5481a4df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 800.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…ceabbacked Yes | 12c | 605.79$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.06 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +61%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4abf…f495backed Yes | 10c | 255.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…c77dbacked Yes | 31c | 163.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…c2e6backed Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 24c | 149.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 68c | 143.08$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x979e…3d11backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…2e87backed Yes | 11c | 95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed No | 74c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x698a…971cbacked Yes | 23c | 74.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -86%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…ca5fbacked No | 77c | 62.34$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11b4…cb17backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 75c | 20.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20f7…635ebacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25cc…3601backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump tweet 5-6 times Dec 6-13?this page
- Will Trump tweet 11-14 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Trump tweet 15-19 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Trump tweet 3-4 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Trump tweet 7-8 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Trump tweet 9-10 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Trump tweet less than 3 times Dec 6-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.