Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump tweet 3-4 times Dec 6-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8fa902f2d77dc928921c54c35d5a51f891463e682a1c2e49a343b9400446140
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 11c | 349.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25cc…3601backed No | 58c | 305.54$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 224.73$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 29c | 222.05$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.39 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed Yes | 32c | 221.57$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.53 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked No | 59c | 219.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.39 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 212.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 22c | 171.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a32…ae7bbacked Yes | 37c | 152.24$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6da6…55a0backed Yes | 41c | 152.1$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 8c | 140$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79a9…1e1dbacked Yes | 22c | 132.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x979e…3d11backed Yes | 41c | 100.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…5055backed Yes | 41c | 95.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…8508backed Yes | 43c | 92.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 87.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf59…fefdbacked Yes | 30c | 77.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5350…df2abacked Yes | 16c | 73.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d4…f46abacked Yes | 16c | 69.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddc4…46b1backed Yes | 38c | 65.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…dd63backed Yes | 32c | 65.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6b…13e4backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11b4…cb17backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…7ef9backed No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe5…66c2backed Yes | 21c | 48.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932e…4fffbacked Yes | 43c | 46.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57be…2750backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccaa…9066backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 33c | 36.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 30c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 31.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6c…a1c5backed Yes | 52c | 29.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5945…c417backed Yes | 42c | 28.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 36c | 28.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c10…0b65backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump tweet 3-4 times Dec 6-13?this page
- Will Trump tweet 11-14 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Trump tweet 15-19 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Trump tweet 5-6 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Trump tweet 7-8 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Trump tweet 9-10 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Trump tweet less than 3 times Dec 6-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.