NBA · resolved market
Will Dereck Lively be the top rebounder for the 2024 NBA Finals?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2204a3f05f5e4450f53c63180f28c20995341a0e6bb745e193d972ac3d55b05a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4825…007dbacked Yes | 25c | 2,775$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 6c | 850$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…20cbbacked Yes | 6c | 700$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…bf70backed Yes | 6c | 700$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8311…ec26backed Yes | 28c | 442$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e2…34b4backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Yes | 75c | 145$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb17…0075backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +1,253.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e42…03b8backed Yes | 76c | 33.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…971fbacked Yes | 76c | 29.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Dereck Lively be the top rebounder for the 2024 NBA Finals?this page
- Will Al Horford be the top rebounder for the 2024 NBA Finals?No won
- Will Jayson Tatum be the top rebounder for the 2024 NBA Finals?No won
- Will Kristaps Porzingis be the top rebounder for the 2024 NBA Finals?No won
- Will Luka Doncic be the top rebounder for the 2024 NBA Finals?Yes won
- Will another player be the top rebounder for the 2024 NBA Finals?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.