Champions League · resolved market
Will the match between Aston Villa and Bayern Munich end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d8686ee3a0e6c6e18bec9025fb810bd362f7231fa3ffb64988d6d2d9d70e46b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Yes | 23c | 1,783$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.09 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed No | 79c | 1,500$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked No | 77c | 965.8$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.25 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Yes | 48c | 840.19$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.05 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 58c | 761.15$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.8 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 21c | 614.22$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.99 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe9…f4e5backed No | 78c | 599.98$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 21c | 554.93$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.53 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91a1…5d25backed Yes | 22c | 324.88$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb3…92e2backed Yes | 21c | 243$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x868f…94efbacked Yes | 35c | 197.21$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 77c | 137.96$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 21c | 115$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe429…fb94backed Yes | 29c | 107$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 28c | 103.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 257 | 35%90 W · 167 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 173 | 22%38 W · 135 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…85f2backed No | 72c | 44.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5523…51e9backed No | 78c | 42.82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdc…1669backed No | 73c | 39.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa469…42a7backed No | 72c | 38.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -4.6wins | -0.27per pick | 62cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a5…2cbdbacked No | 72c | 35.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the match between Aston Villa and Bayern Munich end in a draw?this page
- Will Aston Villa beat Bayern Munich?Yes won
- Will Bayern Munich beat Aston Villa?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.