Champions League · resolved market
Will Aston Villa beat Bayern Munich?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56e27573b1ca546627d42104056e318b7c06a7778de49da8c4e9461e7e1dcbdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked No | 79c | 10,266$8,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,092.73 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 21c | 9,839$2,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,772.81 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 79c | 2,178$1,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,718.21 | 194 | 53.6%104 W · 90 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeef0…595cbacked Yes | 22c | 1,848$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,445.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +129.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6d…5bc6backed No | 79c | 1,848$1,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,459.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed No | 80c | 1,542$1,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,233.74 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…77b7backed Yes | 21c | 1,429$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.86 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…9f1ebacked Yes | 21c | 404$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.16 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…d9f9backed No | 65c | 400$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed No | 68c | 339.03$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.54 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…28cfbacked Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x495c…512bbacked Yes | 23c | 214.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.79 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 33c | 196.3$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 20c | 179.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 63c | 162.5$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.87 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Yes | 19c | 136.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.56 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cab…f4ecbacked Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.43 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19c3…694abacked No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3362…8cb4backed Yes | 22c | 118.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.18 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e91…ea34backed Yes | 75c | 113.33$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 244 | 55.7%136 W · 108 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 21c | 92.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.89 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +8.2wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes | 20c | 62.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc586…35d7backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 18c | 61.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdf…c1edbacked Yes | 20c | 55.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x859a…0fc9backed Yes | 21c | 52.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b9…8069backed No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 176 | 58.5%103 W · 73 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07be…8bf9backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9b…1770backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 77c | 48.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f87…f16cbacked No | 79c | 36.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7004…50d2backed No | 79c | 34.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 72cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f7…8dc6backed No | 79c | 32.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351c…2db3backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265c…4da5backed No | 80c | 16.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…8744backed No | 79c | 12.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aston Villa beat Bayern Munich?this page
- Will Bayern Munich beat Aston Villa?No won
- Will the match between Aston Villa and Bayern Munich end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.