TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

'Wicked' grosses 2x more than 'Gladiator 2' on opening weekend?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$55,114
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$55,178

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,114 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9739…159fbacked No0c10,223$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.231214.1%5 W · 116 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-85%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bb5…b365backed No5c3,652$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.7260%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a70…52ccbacked Yes78c3,048$2,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.52520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick55cpaid-74.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x184d…0a71backed No27c2,177$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.63714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-74.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6419…0f53backed No46c1,980$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90330%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x74c3…c1a8backed No23c1,936$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.622119%4 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-45.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes64c1,741$1,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.312528%7 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb03…4bdfbacked No4c1,302$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8a9…a158backed No33c1,206$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.19728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes61c1,194$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.145536.4%20 W · 35 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes77c1,167$898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.1618431%57 W · 127 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0c1…e861backed Yes68c1,157$791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x452b…634ebacked Yes77c1,045$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.77333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-56.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8f6…6e65backed Yes66c999.99$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3401030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-58%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89dc…e209backed No44c897.1$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.621618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-54%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef2f…dd1cbacked Yes72c855.84$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.192100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+479.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a36…454bbacked Yes46c730.11$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.246640.9%27 W · 39 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x36a6…52c7backed No28c650$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1811618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-69.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed No14c630.08$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.2140%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x202d…f8dabacked Yes61c575.54$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.54238.7%2 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-79.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c8b…a211backed Yes78c538.73$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-57.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef29…2388backed No20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a67…dc7cbacked Yes52c478.6$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes70c440.39$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.7587033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6867…25b8backed No51c417.99$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.261631.3%5 W · 11 L-4.3wins-0.27per pick58cpaid-51.1%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x75b4…5aabbacked No3c380$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.26175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-92.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe45e…ebb0backed No53c377.61$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-79.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x712f…9fe6backed Yes57c376.6$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.428633.7%29 W · 57 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69a4…bba9backed No34c363.23$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.99540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes51c358.7$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.2632639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9f4…f4f1backed No48c350$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60d5…98aebacked No27c341.26$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.783928.2%11 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No12c338.38$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4567232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d34…7c14backed Yes49c300$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1539238%35 W · 57 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x438e…9704backed Yes75c300$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.9650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83a7…12ddbacked No44c296.75$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc79…1c2abacked No28c291.04$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.164131.7%13 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76b9…b4febacked Yes61c277.27$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.051526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-49.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x684b…0601backed Yes73c275.01$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.521216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-75.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1c5…d5a0backed No35c253.54$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.74616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.26per pick42cpaid-76%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x379d…54efbacked No28c250$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-53%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xccf9…21f6backed No4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-68.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3eb…0829backed No43c234.51$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9330…21a2backed No40c234.43$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x340f…3cf5backed No45c224.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002416.7%4 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-54.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No26c220.03$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.363522.9%8 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c6f…7cdabacked Yes55c211.39$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.31540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9595…1b16backed Yes59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2d2…4f4bbacked Yes55c199.99$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-41.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No49c199.44$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.549441.5%39 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes66c196.39$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.278023.8%19 W · 61 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-48.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed No31c190.23$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.163225%8 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fb1…36f3backed Yes55c186.15$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.19616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-69.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3399…e5fbbacked No48c170$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.82825%7 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe438…9471backed Yes67c162.68$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.27250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50d5…a03abacked Yes69c161.36$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.64425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-63.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x464e…7bd8backed No49c159.19$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-64.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed No38c153.16$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5816614.5%24 W · 142 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…a563backed No26c153.15$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.49366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+53.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80d1…f6c4backed No34c147.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61ea…d0c1backed No39c146.05$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0140%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes64c140$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.1550633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcab1…b2b1backed No11c134.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.931811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-84.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x748f…f6e5backed Yes75c132.09$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.76580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+26.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd277…94d6backed No38c117.25$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fe5…66c2backed No28c108.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-61.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ca9…b942backed Yes60c106.91$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.411145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-28.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb883…21b8backed No28c105.88$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.45742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bab…6590backed Yes72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked No23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231040%4 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+88.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes68c99.98$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.442937.9%11 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9c0…7e50backed No28c97.95$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.43366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd91f…b7fabacked No28c89.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.81450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe241…29febacked No30c83.29$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48da…0419backed Yes59c80.62$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.05666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No26c80$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215745.6%26 W · 31 L+6.5wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+58.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked No38c78.95$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+51.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b5…a6b5backed No31c78$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f46…2cd1backed No28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-38.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No29c69.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1712539.2%49 W · 76 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x716f…8929backed No28c67.65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-56.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf259…7592backed No18c63.64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.462313%3 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-74.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f31…2c90backed Yes68c59$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.98450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbae4…c085backed No34c58.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.181286.3%8 W · 120 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-77.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No33c58.01$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1912923.3%30 W · 99 L-7.3wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-57.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1786…5b47backed No36c57.04$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.53911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick16cpaid+7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed No55c54.46$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2d9…5653backed No44c35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.45920.3%12 W · 47 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x814a…7844backed Yes59c33.88$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes66c30.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.22450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153622.2%8 W · 28 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7033…3f7dbacked No47c29.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb293…6d52backed Yes73c27.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-80.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb75…0fb5backed Yes73c24.93$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.682100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8550…90f7backed Yes75c24.1$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x415c…3c94backed No43c23.33$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.042420.8%5 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-35.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes49c22.56$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.393043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6098…599fbacked Yes62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2992…5351backed No55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18ea…1a48backed Yes55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.