Movies · resolved market
Will 'It Ends with Us' gross less than $40m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb109d5f3648d8dc6b34866fb6ccc6b23c820caf2bfe0b42dd28e17069cc8f90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $761,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $761,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21d8…cc13backed Yes | 0c | 276,800$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e08…184bbacked Yes | 0c | 276,800$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20b0…181ebacked Yes | 0c | 78,826$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…6a4fbacked Yes | 0c | 77,126$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…770dbacked Yes | 17c | 3,370$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 34c | 2,102$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3879…0df4backed Yes | 10c | 1,192$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.78 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked No | 74c | 838.73$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.27 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfa…d143backed Yes | 6c | 547$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 73c | 413$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.51 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…b942backed Yes | 18c | 324.97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3296…f12ebacked Yes | 8c | 303.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed No | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…d81fbacked No | 73c | 195.45$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.82 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 24c | 153.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aac…5d7ebacked Yes | 31c | 120$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ff…60aebacked Yes | 47c | 105$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0e…399fbacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 15c | 99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad1…8c20backed No | 65c | 94.36$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ec…8692backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.25per pick | 62cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…f250backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…925fbacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed No | 74c | 48.68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b97…99e5backed No | 75c | 26.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…549dbacked No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'It Ends with Us' gross less than $40m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'It Ends with Us' gross between $40m and $44m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'It Ends with Us' gross more than $44m on its opening weekend?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.