Movies · resolved market
Will 'It Ends with Us' gross more than $44m on its opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea604f40bb57533c1534d9f17851399c74be73db1515c3bb266d3450b3f208d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6867…25b8backed No | 55c | 5,010$2,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,730.34 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -4.3wins | -0.27per pick | 58cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 29c | 3,145$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,226.08 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 76c | 2,894$2,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.96 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 61c | 1,556$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.61 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 16c | 1,390$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.46 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…d81fbacked No | 44c | 764.76$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.17 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…770dbacked No | 26c | 500$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…085bbacked No | 3c | 479.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 54c | 449.99$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…6501backed Yes | 78c | 305.87$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.79 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed No | 24c | 240$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 45c | 215.84$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.71 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee4…3ababacked Yes | 39c | 201$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.65 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd16a…962dbacked No | 47c | 128.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f2…fccfbacked No | 17c | 122.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad67…a975backed No | 36c | 119.31$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x240e…e8aabacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0e…399fbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb33…5924backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b97…99e5backed Yes | 70c | 54.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…9629backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…b942backed Yes | 70c | 32.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…549dbacked Yes | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'It Ends with Us' gross more than $44m on its opening weekend?this page
- Will 'It Ends with Us' gross between $40m and $44m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'It Ends with Us' gross less than $40m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.