World Politics · resolved market
Will the NDP win 9 or more seats in the 2025 Canadian federal election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef5fea9ed28d5ba9c41cc0c0aab8c3f86141c0ed42703ccd278df915cfe34db7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 61c | 8,487$5,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,298.66 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 26c | 6,432$1,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,672.05 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a16…33dbbacked Yes | 46c | 3,995$1,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,830.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 40c | 981$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.66 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…3ee9backed No | 66c | 860.68$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.14 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 35c | 711.89$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.67 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 57c | 692$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.38 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 61c | 647.99$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.16 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 11c | 453.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.55 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +29.2wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d1…c2acbacked Yes | 42c | 299.15$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4c…81a4backed Yes | 39c | 250$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd259…9d3fbacked Yes | 39c | 250$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…33acbacked Yes | 39c | 245$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 70c | 223.09$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.47 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…93fcbacked No | 61c | 195$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +129%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 38c | 193.68$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed Yes | 41c | 165.08$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3547…7064backed No | 61c | 165$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b0…cdd9backed No | 61c | 160$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9597…62e9backed No | 61c | 160$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeecc…7cbebacked No | 61c | 160$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…0a71backed Yes | 46c | 152.11$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 65c | 149.94$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e98…0009backed Yes | 39c | 135$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 40c | 123.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 39c | 115.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +340%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…79eebacked Yes | 32c | 113$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb613…517bbacked Yes | 31c | 110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…85e9backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 58c | 90.61$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…253bbacked No | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28df…46cebacked No | 61c | 75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 33c | 70.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc013…554bbacked Yes | 40c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8235…c814backed Yes | 39c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbf…12aabacked Yes | 28c | 54.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 36c | 51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa8…6c7cbacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3c…710abacked No | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 63c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0487…d452backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a7…b410backed Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 46c | 28.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c83…2637backed Yes | 39c | 25.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48dd…1391backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceca…3a75backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked No | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the NDP win 9 or more seats in the 2025 Canadian federal election?this page
- Will the NDP win 2 or fewer seats in the 2025 Canadian federal election?No won
- Will the NDP win between 3 and 4 seats in the 2025 Canadian federal election?No won
- Will the NDP win between 5 and 6 seats in the 2025 Canadian federal election?No won
- Will the NDP win between 7 and 8 seats in the 2025 Canadian federal election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.