Tennis · resolved market
Will Jessica Pegula win the US Open?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8242218182625d10d3a3eaf79c9ee76a6adf3fb1c8198e86e5bb2663532cfaba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 8c | 7,765$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.33 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked No | 77c | 4,423$3,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.51 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked Yes | 24c | 4,342$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 17c | 4,170$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.37 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…79eabacked Yes | 25c | 3,687$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4c…54e7backed Yes | 21c | 3,316$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbb…4a54backed Yes | 8c | 2,248$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…3cf1backed Yes | 25c | 2,028$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 8c | 1,637$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.6 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c3…4d61backed Yes | 8c | 1,400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc578…fab0backed Yes | 9c | 1,226$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.54 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Yes | 24c | 1,195$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.03 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…8a59backed Yes | 7c | 1,040$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204e…4236backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 9c | 804.35$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb438…b113backed Yes | 15c | 525.52$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.86 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…bb41backed Yes | 23c | 520$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.6 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Yes | 21c | 505$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.6 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ce…c3abbacked Yes | 25c | 496.86$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.21 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66e0…105dbacked Yes | 18c | 444.44$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…1f80backed Yes | 25c | 442.81$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 5c | 373.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…7a25backed Yes | 8c | 359.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 19c | 328.27$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +145.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 11c | 295.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1d…2d6fbacked Yes | 8c | 282.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed Yes | 5c | 250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Yes | 23c | 239.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…8fb7backed Yes | 9c | 222.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Yes | 26c | 205$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 24c | 172$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa2…0204backed Yes | 12c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 20c | 142.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 21c | 132.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07fd…48fbbacked Yes | 28c | 105.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…c3dbbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a3…8874backed Yes | 28c | 83.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…4475backed Yes | 28c | 64.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…21c5backed No | 73c | 59.53$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed Yes | 19c | 55.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99c6…533bbacked No | 73c | 46.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ce…a3ddbacked No | 73c | 43.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a29…0db8backed Yes | 28c | 35.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…9f1ebacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jessica Pegula win the US Open?this page
- Will Aryna Sabalenka win the US Open?Yes won
- Will Coco Gauff win the US Open?No won
- Will Danielle Rose Collins win the US Open?No won
- Will Elena Rybakina win the US Open?No won
- Will Iga Swiatek win the US Open?No won
- Will Jasmine Paolini win the US Open?No won
- Will Karolina Muchova win the US Open?No won
- Will Mirra Andreeva win the US Open?No won
- Will Naomi Osaka win the US Open?No won
- Will Qinwen Zheng win the US Open?No won
- Will another player win the US Open?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.