Tennis · resolved market
Will Karolina Muchova win the US Open?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x380a3ccd687bc1a97dc04775bd424cb19765fcfbad9484c299a0a28a70d41fd2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2c5…70d9backed Yes | 11c | 9,742$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes | 8c | 5,187$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.41 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +29%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Yes | 13c | 2,800$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 14c | 1,135$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.29 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +145.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…bb39backed Yes | 13c | 772.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0403…c5e7backed Yes | 13c | 578.78$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 8c | 464.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed Yes | 7c | 403.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 17c | 400$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 143 | 45.5%65 W · 78 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…bb41backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Karolina Muchova win the US Open?this page
- Will Aryna Sabalenka win the US Open?Yes won
- Will Coco Gauff win the US Open?No won
- Will Danielle Rose Collins win the US Open?No won
- Will Elena Rybakina win the US Open?No won
- Will Iga Swiatek win the US Open?No won
- Will Jasmine Paolini win the US Open?No won
- Will Jessica Pegula win the US Open?No won
- Will Mirra Andreeva win the US Open?No won
- Will Naomi Osaka win the US Open?No won
- Will Qinwen Zheng win the US Open?No won
- Will another player win the US Open?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.