TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Will Aryna Sabalenka win the US Open?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$71,918
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$74,384

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,918 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7b9d…79eabacked No25c5,000$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-45.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a12…01cebacked Yes75c4,969$3,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,242.252245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-28.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x168a…130dbacked Yes75c4,879$3,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,217.662100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf374…ce1abacked No69c3,869$2,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,664.352166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ec…3665backed Yes37c2,715$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,714.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+171.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9193…c86cbacked Yes31c2,698$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,852.621145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-11.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f50…4db9backed No55c2,288$1,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,256.134353.5%23 W · 20 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Yes30c2,076$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,457.3514345.5%65 W · 78 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes29c1,735$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,232.771450%7 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+29%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed No68c1,451$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.784944.9%22 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7cb…b857backed No43c1,260$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.732744.4%12 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x002e…ab83backed Yes76c1,125$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick58cpaid+31.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes38c1,125$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.5281938.9%319 W · 500 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9481…7995backed Yes36c1,090$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.62366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+42.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc417…3ca6backed Yes38c1,037$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.95862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac27…bff0backed Yes49c1,021$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.682100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b9…f392backed Yes33c909.09$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.09366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+76.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x533b…2b26backed Yes59c770.82$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes49c676.01$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.2510318.4%19 W · 84 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick13cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes50c631.29$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.993647.2%17 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5dc1…c249backed No75c542.97$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3341…d6f8backed Yes73c500$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.05333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-54.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8ba…a286backed No25c475.02$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.7630%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc717…88bbbacked No25c437$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a8d…f710backed Yes76c437$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.882100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x685e…bb41backed Yes56c433.31$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.312128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe411…04c5backed Yes54c402.51$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.796136.1%22 W · 39 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes35c352.17$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.9128141.6%117 W · 164 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20fd…91c7backed Yes29c346.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.21333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1fe…c728backed Yes31c300$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e00…14ecbacked Yes73c300$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7941…c675backed Yes33c300$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2011414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-44.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6ee…3d11backed Yes28c285.89$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.89450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5178…f7dcbacked Yes73c273.92$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Yes37c270.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.2773147.9%350 W · 381 L-16.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Yes36c242.42$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.9611956.3%67 W · 52 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54c9…396cbacked Yes28c236.7$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+76%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed No69c219.35$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.355438.9%21 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x481c…73eebacked Yes31c219$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.113100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+229.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d2a…cc0dbacked Yes76c215.27$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes32c211.04$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1441414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick8cpaid-39.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c43…b289backed Yes77c200$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-55.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6650…d38ebacked Yes33c184.31$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.031822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-35.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5697…cddfbacked Yes76c184.21$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.212100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec96…b987backed Yes38c181.18$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.86425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-33.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Yes57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4457249.5%283 W · 289 L-32.8wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes75c172$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-47.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e1d…fcc4backed Yes73c172$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x024f…2ec0backed Yes32c168.75$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.754100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+115.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6c6c…9047backed Yes57c163.86$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.74850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdff…8bd9backed Yes31c161.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.29250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed No74c159.69$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.932437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-47.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc970…b063backed Yes30c155.26$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.68366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+55.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes46c150.73$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.51862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick40cpaid+18.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x28b2…eb4fbacked No71c140.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-65.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ff1…372dbacked Yes43c135.82$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.32475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+43.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e8e…9821backed Yes33c132.85$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.012100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+120%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed No66c127.3$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.284837.5%18 W · 30 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-31.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No71c126.23$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.124348.8%21 W · 22 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x688e…a8f1backed No67c120$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Yes42c119.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.052,33546.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L+55.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2a2…4f1abacked Yes33c118.48$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab72…bef8backed Yes49c117.93$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+103.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66dc…bcc5backed Yes45c116.29$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Yes73c110$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…e0c9backed Yes73c108$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.16850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9314…1e98backed No67c100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-54.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x12e1…51f6backed Yes38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-47.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a4b…1304backed Yes28c100$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x000a…6df9backed Yes31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x400c…c80abacked Yes38c97.37$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdee1…b0e1backed No77c95.3$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb12c…c2b2backed Yes54c93.24$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb149…f445backed Yes28c91.57$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3168…6734backed Yes57c90$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.71241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d14…9039backed No29c89.66$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x844a…df5ebacked Yes44c88.78$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+125%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7a0…f955backed Yes32c88.37$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.37633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+35.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7624…84e5backed Yes57c87.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x415c…3c94backed Yes31c83.22$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.391442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick26cpaid+31.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0503…db3dbacked Yes73c82.19$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.19742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbae4…c085backed Yes37c82.04$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.04825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-34.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb61f…d3a2backed Yes33c79.37$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda14…5a6cbacked Yes45c74.31$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f05…455fbacked Yes34c73.53$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.53366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick29cpaid+130.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b1c…5fe8backed Yes32c73.07$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.92450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+70.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7aaf…659bbacked Yes47c72.98$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+114%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b4c…65febacked Yes28c70$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick31cpaid+97%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4094…2ec9backed Yes74c67.55$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d4c…ff37backed Yes76c65.79$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.79580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+32.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x800a…7065backed Yes54c64.69$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bf7…6e52backed No28c62.5$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5608…918fbacked No68c61.72$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b3f…3e07backed Yes54c61.37$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b55…02f8backed Yes23c60.53$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.553050%15 W · 15 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8ef…8044backed Yes54c56.28$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d2f…aa1abacked Yes73c54.27$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes57c52.63$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.631580%12 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+28.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcec3…53a1backed Yes57c52.63$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x288d…5444backed Yes42c51.1$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+139.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.