Movies · resolved market
Will 'Transformers One' gross less than $35-42m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ed653e6b14479ca806ecd81c5febba442b03227dcc0cab6c16c608f0aea5c06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x180b…dcf5backed Yes | 1c | 12,110$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26d9…eff0backed Yes | 1c | 3,268$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,690$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.6 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e82…6bacbacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…dbe0backed Yes | 1c | 968.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 35c | 769.62$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.5 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 18c | 418$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.37 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 23c | 384.39$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.72 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65b3…c344backed Yes | 44c | 336.57$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 84 | 22.6%19 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb61…a3aabacked Yes | 38c | 217.48$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.52 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed No | 57c | 216.75$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.2 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed No | 60c | 183$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.88 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 7c | 175$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x377f…9e02backed Yes | 11c | 156.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 44c | 150$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.66 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 21c | 125$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6c…0bc2backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 21c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…8839backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Transformers One' gross less than $35-42m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Transformers One' gross less than $35m opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Transformers One' gross less than $42-49m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Transformers One' gross more than $49m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.