Movies · resolved market
Will 'Transformers One' gross less than $35m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x615cdbf6afb1911b4e583dd8316833655369c5cd94186b7f712856ee93598a12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3d07…0b45backed No | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked No | 0c | 10,430$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…d81fbacked No | 55c | 3,648$2,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,019.58 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked No | 54c | 3,555$1,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,913.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +346%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1df…0f37backed No | 1c | 3,300$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 52c | 2,654$1,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,281.66 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 45c | 2,494$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,383.22 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked No | 6c | 1,509$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.66 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…be84backed No | 45c | 1,447$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.32 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…d81fbacked Yes | 50c | 1,430$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.2 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…21a8backed No | 17c | 1,188$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 50c | 1,187$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.76 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 1c | 1,135$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 52c | 1,076$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.27 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 44c | 948.56$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.18 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd1…b557backed No | 33c | 800$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 39c | 694.3$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.52 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65e3…a7cdbacked No | 55c | 565.46$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 37c | 553.99$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.21 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x535f…5ce5backed No | 43c | 540.53$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 51c | 530.93$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.16 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb27d…fc9cbacked No | 62c | 508.37$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -62%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7424…3482backed No | 11c | 503.74$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 62c | 420.49$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.89 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x72a6…6b75backed No | 50c | 393.04$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed No | 12c | 291$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b97…99e5backed No | 25c | 285.65$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb61…a3aabacked Yes | 46c | 239.81$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.85 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfac6…6c64backed Yes | 42c | 237.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.39 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…7571backed Yes | 39c | 216.36$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b50…43e8backed Yes | 49c | 204.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x640b…102abacked Yes | 41c | 203.92$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 39cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65b3…c344backed Yes | 78c | 192.24$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 67c | 125$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd82…2d20backed Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 42c | 120$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.5 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4437…503ebacked No | 46c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 59c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked No | 19c | 64.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked No | 69c | 64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…4ec1backed No | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 65c | 57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…d9adbacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…e881backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5574…6424backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…7399backed Yes | 43c | 46.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…3c92backed No | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +67%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Yes | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef0…f1a9backed Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc462…5e7abacked No | 47c | 28.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x030b…0380backed Yes | 55c | 20.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7005…9c5cbacked No | 63c | 15.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 68c | 15.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 35cpaid | -91%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Transformers One' gross less than $35m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Transformers One' gross less than $35-42m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Transformers One' gross less than $42-49m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Transformers One' gross more than $49m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.