Olympics · resolved market
Olympic Basketball: Greece vs Germany
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b75520dad699b5f498742fb77e8f4002391f041d1b780f9c23cc25d90b8516b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Germanyof Greece, Germany
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x653b…4295backed Germany | 79c | 7,861$6,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…64abbacked Germany | 73c | 6,908$5,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,853.03 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked Greece | 27c | 5,981$1,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,596.63 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…197cbacked Greece | 21c | 4,760$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.6 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Greece | 23c | 3,640$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.14 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed Germany | 78c | 1,991$1,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Greece | 24c | 1,500$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Germany | 76c | 1,436$1,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.02 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4828…ddd9backed Greece | 26c | 976.92$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc711…d3c6backed Greece | 21c | 633.33$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe946…4cc4backed Germany | 79c | 561.78$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…4bfbbacked Germany | 79c | 400$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Germany | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Greece | 13c | 399.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…6fecbacked Germany | 76c | 394.21$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c8…3e97backed Greece | 11c | 365.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 15cpaid | +215.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7aba…3589backed Greece | 22c | 362.91$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2855…afffbacked Greece | 24c | 333$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4424…c0f6backed Greece | 24c | 322.54$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf2…b7bcbacked Germany | 76c | 262.47$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…c3d4backed Greece | 6c | 215$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…3e58backed Greece | 21c | 204.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd76…6c23backed Greece | 10c | 201.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed Greece | 14c | 190.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c6…3654backed Greece | 15c | 153.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Greece | 9c | 151.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Greece | 20c | 125.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5185…a49fbacked Germany | 78c | 106.37$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Greece | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Germany | 75c | 27.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…b283backed Germany | 76c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c91…b5ccbacked Germany | 78c | 23.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a60…06efbacked Germany | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ed…0fa2backed Germany | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4173…79c0backed Germany | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.