TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Another US military action against Iran before August?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$315,624
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$278,103

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $315,624 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes1c55,342$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.67368.3%3 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-82.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9758…536dbacked Yes6c12,166$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.4140%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes4c9,949$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.9228320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes3c9,873$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.065614.3%8 W · 48 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e23…5411backed Yes8c9,122$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes5c7,741$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.344027.5%11 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed4f…e25abacked Yes2c6,809$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.68185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick10cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4512…84f9backed Yes2c6,016$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7efb…547ebacked Yes5c5,516$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-53%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c5,329$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.533989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6045…db96backed Yes5c4,744$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes1c4,578$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.58397.7%3 W · 36 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-55.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c4,188$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.841,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x961a…50c7backed Yes2c3,942$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701233.3%4 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.23per pick11cpaid+89.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdff1…de19backed Yes1c3,835$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.351625%4 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+84.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf904…85ecbacked Yes11c3,200$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.641353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick42cpaid-3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa510…1f80backed Yes3c2,862$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.871020%2 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-61.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes1c2,813$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.56714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0417…ddecbacked Yes3c2,800$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.991618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick30cpaid-72.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes8c2,474$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200100%0 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes4c2,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8014125.5%36 W · 105 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8252…e65cbacked Yes5c1,894$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d47…8644backed Yes5c1,864$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes9c1,756$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.5855618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x298b…d709backed Yes6c1,679$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10960%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc428…79eebacked Yes6c1,611$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x189e…985abacked Yes3c1,444$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x842d…9c19backed Yes10c1,437$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes10c1,354$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.24911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick14cpaid+84.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa20a…ed3abacked Yes10c1,318$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.2730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b4f…bb30backed Yes11c1,300$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9bd…b3ddbacked Yes4c1,163$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9f7…d43dbacked Yes11c1,127$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa915…b244backed Yes2c1,079$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17110%0 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x68bd…290fbacked Yes2c1,052$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-53.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x42c0…7e34backed Yes4c1,048$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x268b…024fbacked Yes5c1,040$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.62616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-63%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x550b…ca56backed Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7b7…30c2backed Yes2c954.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2335…6b4fbacked Yes2c877.91$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae06…77e1backed Yes5c871.55$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-38.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03db…c28bbacked Yes12c843.33$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcfe4…0acbbacked Yes2c808.46$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick6cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes3c785.34$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.999629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes4c739.37$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8618516.2%30 W · 155 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46b6…264fbacked Yes8c730.22$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf14c…4e18backed Yes2c657.77$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.861216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-52.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x978e…80bcbacked Yes6c621.32$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b06…98cebacked Yes2c614.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8467…ac8fbacked Yes10c604.9$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28da…b97dbacked Yes7c503.86$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.283228.1%9 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9389…aaffbacked Yes4c499.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2250%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2b…867abacked Yes10c446.3$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes2c444.73$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.236010%6 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc21e…e2e4backed Yes7c374.57$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+60.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0ff…e8cfbacked Yes3c359.96$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.08520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid+150%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd67f…70febacked Yes9c349.32$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+164%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b3e…0b91backed Yes13c347.73$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+208.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x784a…5edfbacked Yes4c339.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146a…9f4abacked Yes10c339.47$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x625c…a14ebacked Yes3c334$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-62%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb09…a8c0backed Yes6c333.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a86…243dbacked Yes13c307.69$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+65.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes10c300$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.58921.3%19 W · 70 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x656e…65d2backed Yes11c300$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332920.7%6 W · 23 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-59.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ac4…4bedbacked Yes10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd81e…f669backed Yes5c258.56$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c9d…f720backed Yes4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb17d…3969backed Yes12c250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes7c249$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.742154.2%9 W · 206 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb77…7368backed Yes13c230.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-82.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46be…4ad3backed Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90d1…935fbacked Yes9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185438.9%21 W · 33 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x415c…3c94backed Yes9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188529.4%25 W · 60 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05ae…b53fbacked Yes7c163.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.44728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3835…7f72backed Yes11c133.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15362.8%1 W · 35 L-7.2wins-0.20per pick23cpaid-92.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x4d08…733dbacked Yes10c129.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-64.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes8c127.29$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1318322.4%41 W · 142 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0137…4292backed Yes12c125$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x11d6…9530backed Yes12c121.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaf51…0f7cbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-43.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3179…2918backed Yes12c95.2$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1074…2dbdbacked Yes12c94.44$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.