F1 · resolved market
Will Lando Norris win the Dutch Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb86ecedc5b65f33144db41f993112b4352d42c187a8ea639a70ac99db6d228c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,687
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8aa6…c86dbacked Yes | 55c | 1,714$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.51 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed No | 53c | 1,559$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.87 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Yes | 46c | 1,480$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 47c | 1,093$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.25 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…97a0backed No | 50c | 884.28$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…0ba7backed No | 47c | 875$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4268…43e5backed Yes | 54c | 836.36$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 50c | 829.54$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.77 | 92 | 23.9%22 W · 70 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 45c | 804.02$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.29 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed No | 45c | 419.99$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed Yes | 51c | 403.41$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.35 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb44a…3368backed No | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…8534backed Yes | 55c | 366.91$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 56c | 330.95$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.56 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44b9…0598backed No | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…ce1abacked Yes | 46c | 216.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.96 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe213…138ebacked Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd149…5452backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe484…7c7abacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 51c | 91.04$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed Yes | 46c | 90.94$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.91 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.35per pick | 51cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb1…e300backed Yes | 54c | 83.68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 68c | 80.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.58 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc236…a585backed No | 50c | 80.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…c7f9backed No | 65c | 80$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed No | 54c | 77.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…db6abacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked No | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac5…369cbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 30c | 55.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 28cpaid | +128.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…9964backed Yes | 32c | 54.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae65…d7cdbacked No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2321…62aebacked No | 68c | 39.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa577…a490backed No | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd72…0c13backed No | 70c | 31.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a3…900abacked Yes | 68c | 29.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 26.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…431fbacked No | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked No | 67c | 18.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lando Norris win the Dutch Grand Prix?this page
- Will Carlos Sainz win the Dutch Grand Prix?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc win the Dutch Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell win the Dutch Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the Dutch Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the Dutch Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the Dutch Grand Prix?No won
- Will another driver win the Dutch Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.