F1 · resolved market
Will Max Verstappen win the Dutch Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85c51dbbc85829d25ae32b3addea252f57c10ff7471558b05a241a2f3d3bbb41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 69c | 7,516$5,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,349.22 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 71c | 4,284$3,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,242.23 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…4ed8backed Yes | 30c | 3,345$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked No | 70c | 2,688$1,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes | 30c | 2,022$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.59 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 2c | 1,905$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 92 | 23.9%22 W · 70 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc677…7b4dbacked Yes | 31c | 1,613$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked No | 70c | 1,301$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed Yes | 33c | 943.27$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.94 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…97a0backed Yes | 30c | 842.79$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Yes | 31c | 650$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed No | 79c | 621.45$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.31 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed No | 68c | 605.44$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.54 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05ff…b701backed Yes | 34c | 588.61$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ee…26babacked Yes | 31c | 512.84$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe52e…1c90backed Yes | 29c | 496.82$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 60c | 476.6$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.74 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…0ba7backed Yes | 21c | 450$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed Yes | 26c | 430.25$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.59 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 28c | 419.49$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.46 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x024f…2ec0backed Yes | 32c | 412.5$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ee…3d11backed Yes | 37c | 405.41$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed No | 61c | 350$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.35per pick | 51cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0770…6e0dbacked Yes | 18c | 315.62$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc578…fab0backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…c7f9backed No | 69c | 249.98$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd149…5452backed Yes | 34c | 242.85$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…ee3dbacked Yes | 33c | 240.71$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7105…c107backed Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 207.43$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.43 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…a4b2backed Yes | 32c | 200$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 72c | 200$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a71…3c62backed Yes | 29c | 189.92$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0450…b696backed Yes | 31c | 182.42$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…c77bbacked Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3a…f3edbacked Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x644c…0dbfbacked Yes | 39c | 146.67$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…de46backed Yes | 9c | 145$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0053…4088backed Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…9964backed Yes | 33c | 122.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c3…ab95backed Yes | 31c | 116.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558c…c433backed Yes | 31c | 114.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked No | 69c | 104.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf313…ebf7backed Yes | 30c | 103.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 69c | 99.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 123 | 53.7%66 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c00…b8e3backed No | 70c | 87.14$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…7a2ebacked Yes | 32c | 85.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa577…a490backed Yes | 33c | 76.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55c4…74fabacked Yes | 31c | 75.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…314bbacked Yes | 33c | 75.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…431fbacked Yes | 35c | 72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0232…9391backed No | 61c | 72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac5…369cbacked Yes | 31c | 64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…ce1abacked No | 74c | 59.21$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2825…accebacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…c6c2backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…0978backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…fadfbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad1…8c20backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f2…cd83backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ee…92d8backed Yes | 31c | 45.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6e…0db5backed Yes | 41c | 43.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Yes | 31c | 42.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 55c | 41.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c2…1e22backed Yes | 36c | 32.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbd…1988backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf75a…c60abacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Max Verstappen win the Dutch Grand Prix?this page
- Will Carlos Sainz win the Dutch Grand Prix?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc win the Dutch Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell win the Dutch Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris win the Dutch Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the Dutch Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the Dutch Grand Prix?No won
- Will another driver win the Dutch Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.