Olympics · resolved market
Will Julien Alfred (LCA) win gold in 200m W?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f249edf37579c48ba7a27b6374f97addd76a8e4dec92a0e053f2a9ec56737a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6691…17cfbacked Yes | 1c | 14,021$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.21 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…77b7backed Yes | 33c | 2,412$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1a…6dc0backed No | 71c | 1,565$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.45 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +176.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb77e…d65dbacked No | 73c | 681.11$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8371…06febacked Yes | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x471b…b18fbacked Yes | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked No | 67c | 499.97$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 29c | 497.08$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.63 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 28c | 446$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.87 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…4bfbbacked No | 75c | 199$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 28c | 189.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…dd01backed Yes | 32c | 154.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c2…0a62backed Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b9…1921backed Yes | 31c | 136.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e7…f880backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90db…46cbbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…2a96backed Yes | 33c | 91.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…b283backed No | 70c | 65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bed…4ecebacked Yes | 34c | 58.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa39…d95bbacked No | 71c | 50.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5574…6424backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72d5…e2a5backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00f1…51edbacked Yes | 34c | 48.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x344d…1278backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad66…efa6backed Yes | 32c | 43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae67…faf1backed Yes | 29c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Julien Alfred (LCA) win gold in 200m W?this page
- Will Dina Asher-Smith (GBR) win gold in 200m W?No won
- Will Gabrielle Thomas (USA) win gold in 200m W?Yes won
- Will McKenzie Long (USA) win gold in 200m W?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.