Olympics · resolved market
Will Gabrielle Thomas (USA) win gold in 200m W?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9153e1cac1c1dbaf2d6761cf10c3d944951411de0b744acf35211aa11ba1e38d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,116
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,063
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,116 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6691…17cfbacked No | 7c | 4,570$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.9 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 30c | 2,016$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.43 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x578c…9661backed Yes | 70c | 1,903$1,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…3873backed Yes | 70c | 1,500$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb91f…e659backed Yes | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +195.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27f8…b504backed Yes | 70c | 800$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…ce1abacked No | 31c | 690$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Yes | 67c | 595.6$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.55 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47de…410ebacked Yes | 69c | 500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -65%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1a…6dc0backed Yes | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +176.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89f2…552fbacked No | 33c | 394.55$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 30c | 374.47$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.25 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +7.3wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +159.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b3…0786backed Yes | 72c | 347.22$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.22 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…a634backed Yes | 71c | 282.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8371…06febacked No | 29c | 259.08$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.68 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd44b…92f8backed No | 32c | 254$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed No | 28c | 250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec3…53a1backed Yes | 72c | 206.19$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.73 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7f…a681backed Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…b942backed Yes | 68c | 178.47$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.81 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Yes | 70c | 160$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…e7abbacked No | 30c | 153.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344d…1278backed Yes | 72c | 138.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb1…1771backed No | 32c | 135$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4842…7c89backed Yes | 70c | 125.51$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc13…5e09backed Yes | 72c | 123.04$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510a…cd8fbacked Yes | 69c | 106.8$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x558c…c433backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed No | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9250…23bfbacked Yes | 71c | 94.91$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa74b…7483backed Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca9d…07f7backed Yes | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -68%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43e7…f880backed No | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b8…da98backed Yes | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a35…94eebacked No | 32c | 56.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…b778backed Yes | 69c | 50.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aac…5d7ebacked Yes | 71c | 50.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba3f…8b64backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0efc…a858backed Yes | 72c | 47.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50cf…b33cbacked No | 31c | 44.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb24d…9848backed Yes | 69c | 40.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae43…5701backed Yes | 70c | 37.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x277c…13d3backed Yes | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…a741backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…a4a0backed Yes | 72c | 29.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…de46backed Yes | 67c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -54%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…b5c9backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…3a5bbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0abf…1f10backed Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gabrielle Thomas (USA) win gold in 200m W?this page
- Will Dina Asher-Smith (GBR) win gold in 200m W?No won
- Will Julien Alfred (LCA) win gold in 200m W?No won
- Will McKenzie Long (USA) win gold in 200m W?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.