Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Shelton vs. Tiafoe
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7470e16277490561a42e442ca8ebc9d50173b92637e11754b6206ccc3cc37b60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tiafoeof Shelton, Tiafoe
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,281
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,281 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked Tiafoe | 42c | 9,500$3,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,516.94 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1d…fcc4backed Shelton | 60c | 9,039$5,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,438.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Tiafoe | 40c | 3,517$1,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,122.47 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb27d…fc9cbacked Shelton | 60c | 2,130$1,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,277.93 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3b…ffcebacked Tiafoe | 58c | 1,749$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7620…d9f0backed Shelton | 60c | 1,667$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89e0…e058backed Tiafoe | 42c | 1,655$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.76 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Tiafoe | 40c | 1,281$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.79 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Tiafoe | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0669…3a54backed Tiafoe | 41c | 806.48$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Shelton | 59c | 800$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3575…4f23backed Shelton | 62c | 704.87$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf53f…4bc5backed Shelton | 66c | 645.49$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Shelton | 60c | 600$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Shelton | 6c | 587.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0a…63abbacked Tiafoe | 41c | 434.65$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.44 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Tiafoe | 39c | 382.9$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.57 | 143 | 45.5%65 W · 78 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ed…4c65backed Tiafoe | 42c | 362.31$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +139.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c38…697bbacked Shelton | 61c | 362.13$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f49…28a0backed Shelton | 14c | 346.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfac6…6c64backed Shelton | 60c | 338.8$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51cc…8839backed Shelton | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3573…b6f9backed Shelton | 58c | 331.17$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.08 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b88…7b00backed Shelton | 66c | 303.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Tiafoe | 48c | 301.38$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.5 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…ee86backed Tiafoe | 25c | 300$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc2…8955backed Shelton | 61c | 216.89$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Shelton | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Tiafoe | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Tiafoe | 45c | 190$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Shelton | 60c | 183$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.8 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…314bbacked Shelton | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed Shelton | 19c | 166.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Shelton | 54c | 146.84$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.17 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…4feabacked Shelton | 8c | 141.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed Shelton | 70c | 139.72$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Shelton | 58c | 132.42$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc2…5ac5backed Tiafoe | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ce…c3abbacked Tiafoe | 42c | 121.63$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.55 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Tiafoe | 40c | 120$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Shelton | 33c | 103.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Tiafoe | 40c | 99.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Shelton | 58c | 87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4e…2aeebacked Shelton | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa58…030bbacked Shelton | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a78…4d4ebacked Shelton | 60c | 69.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ab…b760backed Shelton | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5af8…c115backed Tiafoe | 42c | 66.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…8b87backed Tiafoe | 34c | 65.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Shelton | 60c | 58.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051f…66b0backed Shelton | 58c | 51.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…3f6bbacked Shelton | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…9c6abacked Shelton | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd6…fe73backed Shelton | 60c | 46.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bad…2683backed Shelton | 79c | 37.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7f…cb22backed Shelton | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa2…0204backed Shelton | 55c | 32.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…aca8backed Shelton | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47a2…eb10backed Shelton | 75c | 28.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c5…f001backed Tiafoe | 70c | 28.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…10fdbacked Shelton | 60c | 25.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba3f…8b64backed Shelton | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…cd00backed Shelton | 75c | 19.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.