NBA · resolved market
Will Pacers vs. Thunder be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf82e9618a666b872658aecbb8efb80b7abf9bd3ea13866980d47da198241bf50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $330,421
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $339,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $330,421 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0869…3e89backed Yes | 32c | 57,172$18,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,876.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebd8…e9b1backed No | 68c | 57,172$38,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,876.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d8…74d6backed Yes | 31c | 51,523$15,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,756.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +226.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d139backed No | 69c | 51,523$35,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,756.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfb…570ebacked Yes | 55c | 26,079$14,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,735.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4820…1c86backed No | 45c | 26,079$11,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,735.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 15c | 21,915$3,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,257.96 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca21…b07cbacked Yes | 79c | 3,111$2,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.3 | 224 | 58.9%132 W · 92 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0c…ad7cbacked Yes | 75c | 2,500$1,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 49c | 2,130$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.91 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Yes | 32c | 1,667$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.39 | 147 | 27.9%41 W · 106 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x831b…eed5backed Yes | 32c | 1,580$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.58 | 157 | 42.7%67 W · 90 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 63c | 1,291$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.48 | 447 | 40.7%182 W · 265 L | -27.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…149bbacked No | 35c | 1,266$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ed…e60abacked Yes | 66c | 1,138$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.19 | 153 | 16.3%25 W · 128 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Yes | 13c | 1,041$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.92 | 231 | 35.1%81 W · 150 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9136…7169backed Yes | 15c | 800$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4852…0770backed Yes | 72c | 677.14$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.7 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…8218backed Yes | 77c | 632.92$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.16 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 70c | 610$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.2 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1292…e678backed Yes | 64c | 603.73$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.6 | 181 | 44.2%80 W · 101 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec01…6592backed Yes | 66c | 569.76$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.22 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…8f36backed Yes | 69c | 524.76$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.76 | 114 | 71.9%82 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Yes | 30c | 450$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 367 | 47.7%175 W · 192 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde44…cb51backed Yes | 55c | 433.04$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.04 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8367…2a2abacked Yes | 75c | 429.32$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.5 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 47c | 323.45$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.45 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f0…8a69backed Yes | 55c | 294.31$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.51 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 68c | 261$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.82 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab74…1b45backed Yes | 79c | 237.2$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked No | 15c | 226$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf526…35b1backed Yes | 76c | 146.71$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 182 | 46.7%85 W · 97 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3d…8322backed No | 72c | 93.88$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.43 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 34c | 83.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 98 | 4.1%4 W · 94 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…af26backed Yes | 72c | 79.03$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 55c | 74.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 220 | 41.4%91 W · 129 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…070dbacked Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…71eebacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdae1…7a4dbacked Yes | 43c | 57.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ec…fe7cbacked Yes | 72c | 54.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…02ffbacked Yes | 78c | 48.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c0…ff26backed Yes | 72c | 46.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d1…1428backed Yes | 53c | 43.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d4…f320backed Yes | 76c | 40.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9842…d97abacked Yes | 25c | 40.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c74…d2d4backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cb…0377backed Yes | 53c | 37.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7207…b2b8backed Yes | 67c | 37.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 47c | 36.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…c66bbacked Yes | 53c | 35.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e7…0d71backed Yes | 55c | 27.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39b…897dbacked Yes | 60c | 20.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd620…db7bbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…07e0backed Yes | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e3…38bfbacked Yes | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c5…e056backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331a…d80ebacked Yes | 76c | 14.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Pacers vs. Thunder be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup?this page
- Will Cavaliers vs. Nuggets be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup?No won
- Will Cavaliers vs. Thunder be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup?No won
- Will Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup?No won
- Will Cavaliers vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup?No won
- Will Celtics vs. Nuggets be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup?No won
- Will Celtics vs. Thunder be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup?No won
- Will Celtics vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup?No won
- Will Celtics vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup?No won
- Will Knicks vs. Nuggets be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup?No won
- Will Knicks vs. Thunder be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup?No won
- Will Knicks vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup?No won
- Will Knicks vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup?No won
- Will Pacers vs. Nuggets be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup?No won
- Will Pacers vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup?No won
- Will Pacers vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.