NBA · resolved market
Will Knicks vs. Thunder be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcaa3c1141bdab8ed5c0272259edded9f41313cef8a6d5a1c755f2624e5f2475f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xddf5…2a18backed Yes | 45c | 34,053$15,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,323.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x999c…c507backed No | 55c | 34,053$18,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,323.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 75c | 4,925$3,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,254.85 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 14c | 3,000$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca21…b07cbacked Yes | 28c | 2,634$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.59 | 224 | 58.9%132 W · 92 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Yes | 23c | 2,076$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.48 | 575 | 50.3%289 W · 286 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e1…a40ebacked Yes | 32c | 1,580$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2432…ae39backed Yes | 46c | 1,078$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Yes | 16c | 1,032$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.59 | 147 | 27.9%41 W · 106 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a14…e79fbacked Yes | 23c | 1,010$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.29 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,000$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.73 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 58c | 883.9$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.35 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 23c | 825.73$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.43 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ed…e60abacked Yes | 14c | 800$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.2 | 153 | 16.3%25 W · 128 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Yes | 47c | 779.77$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.24 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07e7…a343backed No | 68c | 744.88$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.25 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 33c | 718.67$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.45 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaac2…e0d4backed No | 75c | 580.83$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 31c | 311$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.09 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Yes | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331a…d80ebacked No | 76c | 249.7$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.93 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf526…35b1backed No | 63c | 222.87$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.71 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 59c | 205$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.64 | 447 | 40.7%182 W · 265 L | -27.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e84…4b92backed No | 56c | 176.06$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.64 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 33c | 175.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5915…536bbacked Yes | 36c | 143.28$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.57 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Yes | 45c | 137.89$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.36 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b9…2798backed No | 75c | 116.05$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85b…60e1backed Yes | 46c | 109.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0f…0c86backed No | 69c | 109.32$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…c66bbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa23…368bbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 66c | 90.25$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f9…8518backed Yes | 46c | 86.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…ce77backed Yes | 53c | 85.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 47c | 85.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 356 | 60.4%215 W · 141 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 67c | 71.59$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 220 | 41.4%91 W · 129 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3d…8322backed No | 68c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b29…a0aabacked Yes | 46c | 64.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x736c…7470backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e7…eeadbacked Yes | 35c | 59.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…49c6backed Yes | 34c | 58.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9b…d85ebacked Yes | 44c | 55.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 23c | 53.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…71eebacked Yes | 38c | 52.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc3…b438backed No | 57c | 41.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd0…d82bbacked No | 56c | 40.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…757fbacked Yes | 38c | 39.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…5778backed Yes | 44c | 30.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Knicks vs. Thunder be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup?this page
- Will Cavaliers vs. Nuggets be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup?No won
- Will Cavaliers vs. Thunder be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup?No won
- Will Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup?No won
- Will Cavaliers vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup?No won
- Will Celtics vs. Nuggets be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup?No won
- Will Celtics vs. Thunder be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup?No won
- Will Celtics vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup?No won
- Will Celtics vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup?No won
- Will Knicks vs. Nuggets be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup?No won
- Will Knicks vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup?No won
- Will Knicks vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup?No won
- Will Pacers vs. Nuggets be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup?No won
- Will Pacers vs. Thunder be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup?Yes won
- Will Pacers vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup?No won
- Will Pacers vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.