College Football · resolved market
Will USC beat Michigan by 5 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa2c4cfbf814f1e96409ae0ed6e57ab471edbbbad254b70f37cfea4628e70ce6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Yes | 52c | 3,655$1,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,891.58 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 50c | 2,099$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.65 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked No | 52c | 1,726$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked No | 50c | 1,100$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f7…0d6fbacked Yes | 2c | 959.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 49c | 958.67$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.96 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +7.8wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked No | 51c | 946.11$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.59 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ca…84acbacked Yes | 50c | 843.14$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.57 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Yes | 52c | 807.62$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 48c | 700$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked No | 49c | 399.98$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.99 | 242 | 29.3%71 W · 171 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…97a0backed Yes | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 49c | 333$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.17 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2b…8fa0backed Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 60cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb745…124abacked Yes | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 49c | 125$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4467…6a75backed Yes | 50c | 100.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…de46backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dde…eb38backed Yes | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 49c | 74.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…e186backed Yes | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed No | 48c | 49.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +132.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1a…047fbacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d36…4a5abacked Yes | 51c | 39.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2dd…5e26backed Yes | 51c | 27.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will USC beat Michigan by 5 or more points?this page
- Will USC beat Michigan?Michigan won
- Will there be 45 or more combined points scored?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.