College Football · resolved market
Will USC beat Michigan?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3160c4932b6c0dfd4e3b005cfd65b1b64addab687cd417718b59598f3b28735b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michiganof USC, Michigan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Michigan | 37c | 5,865$2,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,686.63 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed USC | 63c | 5,000$3,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,165 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb6…3c11backed USC | 58c | 2,094$1,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,216.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked USC | 34c | 2,010$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.5 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ce…ab3abacked Michigan | 39c | 2,001$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,220.89 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3195…a94fbacked Michigan | 74c | 1,999$1,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.74 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Michigan | 62c | 1,696$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.49 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Michigan | 37c | 1,483$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.29 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Michigan | 37c | 1,196$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.94 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ca…84acbacked USC | 63c | 1,049$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.62 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d56…d62ebacked USC | 37c | 1,002$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.54 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Michigan | 46c | 985.46$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb789…706fbacked Michigan | 36c | 970.78$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed USC | 44c | 881.79$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.58 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +7.8wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked USC | 6c | 832$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3b…ffcebacked Michigan | 57c | 800$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.54 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.29per pick | 35cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked USC | 54c | 690$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.55 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed USC | 59c | 600$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed USC | 62c | 565.55$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.29 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Michigan | 42c | 517.32$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.19 | 242 | 29.3%71 W · 171 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed USC | 49c | 506.44$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.27 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Michigan | 35c | 500$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed USC | 6c | 440$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d57…bfc5backed USC | 57c | 400$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f2…0659backed Michigan | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8244…7a11backed Michigan | 78c | 393.51$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa03b…c3f1backed USC | 55c | 350$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…3232backed USC | 64c | 338.46$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed USC | 63c | 333$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.79 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…921ebacked Michigan | 63c | 325.79$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.2 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134d…8da9backed Michigan | 75c | 319.94$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed USC | 12c | 291$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe897…513ebacked USC | 49c | 271.05$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.8 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked USC | 63c | 270$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.1 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -31%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb91f…e659backed Michigan | 44c | 220$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8d…84bcbacked USC | 59c | 219$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Michigan | 36c | 199.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.24 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x249e…c29abacked USC | 35c | 185$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.25 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…5679backed Michigan | 48c | 172.38$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.38 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfa…2e62backed Michigan | 68c | 164.99$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…a6d7backed USC | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb67…970abacked USC | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…0b47backed Michigan | 79c | 141$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…82fbbacked Michigan | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed USC | 49c | 125$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1823…b0fcbacked USC | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Michigan | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Michigan | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed USC | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked USC | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…de46backed Michigan | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…d3e3backed Michigan | 38c | 91.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +8.2wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x58bc…a883backed USC | 55c | 70.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…d05ebacked Michigan | 36c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf1…136bbacked USC | 63c | 63.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…095fbacked USC | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa45…0eb0backed USC | 40c | 62.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Michigan | 74c | 57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0494…822bbacked Michigan | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9b…40b8backed Michigan | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked USC | 64c | 50.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddc…a7f7backed Michigan | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Michigan | 37c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1559…21f7backed USC | 57c | 38.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…2112backed USC | 51c | 31.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacbd…3c7abacked USC | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd13…a813backed USC | 65c | 30.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x660f…ec30backed Michigan | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed USC | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb33…5924backed USC | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…5c26backed Michigan | 58c | 22.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e4…e6aebacked USC | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4467…6a75backed Michigan | 59c | 19.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will USC beat Michigan?this page
- Will USC beat Michigan by 5 or more points?No won
- Will there be 45 or more combined points scored?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.