Movies · resolved market
Will 'Shadow Force' gross between $1.6-2m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaecc908993e0b8bb5a3dceb1398a926361c4e8fece89537b330dc8101d0ab7f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 10c | 4,059$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.1 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 66c | 3,594$2,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,386.84 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 40c | 2,542$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.72 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 10c | 2,407$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.71 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 24c | 2,381$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 32c | 590.83$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.35 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 19c | 538.6$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.72 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 14c | 442$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.18 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…d2b3backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 11c | 270$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 61c | 226.02$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.19 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 18c | 138.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dc…528fbacked Yes | 58c | 136.24$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 135.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 76c | 109$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed No | 71c | 90$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a6…321abacked No | 38c | 88.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.15 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 39c | 79.93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.42 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…6583backed Yes | 70c | 76.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.92 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 16c | 69.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b5…82eabacked Yes | 19c | 59.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 73c | 39.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 27c | 39.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +6.4wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Shadow Force' gross between $1.6-2m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Shadow Force' gross between $1.2-1.6m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Shadow Force' gross less than $1.2m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Shadow Force' gross more than $2m opening weekend?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.