Movies · resolved market
Will 'Shadow Force' gross more than $2m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ba618bdf9fc97ca6e5cb7bf1c90edb0d94a057f73ceaab2b815e8c299a7c261
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,330
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,507
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,330 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c5…b081backed No | 41c | 4,233$1,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,727.32 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked No | 28c | 3,000$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.96 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 80c | 2,484$1,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.78 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 46c | 2,164$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,168.68 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…8bc9backed Yes | 61c | 1,557$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.24 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 55c | 1,335$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.46 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 28c | 1,293$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.7 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed No | 53c | 1,154$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.1 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 55c | 1,132$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.77 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5115…b61dbacked Yes | 77c | 1,000$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.35 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 57c | 844.98$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.39 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 13c | 713.33$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.39 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked No | 12c | 400$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 63c | 341.38$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.39 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 29c | 300$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa880…d095backed Yes | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbe…8f74backed Yes | 69c | 290.57$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.57 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8a…b6dfbacked Yes | 59c | 248.98$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 49c | 241.43$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.73 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 34c | 217$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.3 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 84 | 22.6%19 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dc…528fbacked No | 30c | 181.45$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5060…cbcdbacked Yes | 66c | 175$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 45c | 161.37$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.61 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 72c | 160.25$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.87 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 33c | 160$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 19c | 148.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 56c | 147.6$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.42 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 9c | 141.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 78c | 127.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Yes | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed No | 44c | 120$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 41c | 110$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 50c | 110$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5713…fe90backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…3a31backed Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 22c | 87.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab0…1317backed Yes | 71c | 70.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…6583backed Yes | 79c | 70.17$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a5…c139backed Yes | 30c | 69.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed No | 25c | 48.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 38c | 45.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…818bbacked Yes | 67c | 45.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b97…99e5backed Yes | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 36c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 50c | 41.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e87…ef0dbacked Yes | 70c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 37c | 29.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed Yes | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 70c | 20.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1432…3b0fbacked Yes | 75c | 17.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e1c…d60ebacked Yes | 61c | 16.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…c243backed Yes | 75c | 16.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe73b…fe74backed Yes | 75c | 13.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4d…0cadbacked Yes | 79c | 13.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2439…2d52backed Yes | 75c | 13.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Shadow Force' gross more than $2m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Shadow Force' gross between $1.2-1.6m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Shadow Force' gross between $1.6-2m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Shadow Force' gross less than $1.2m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.