MLB · resolved market
ALDS: Yankees vs. Royals Game 1
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a167589eb4236633f37ef85a2ba75fac59d37b174f4544d38cd154fe4afa236
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yankeesof Yankees, Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,665
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,665 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yankees | 63c | 170.92$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.32 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Royals | 33c | 154.72$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 358 | 54.5%195 W · 163 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccde…f241backed Yankees | 67c | 150$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Royals | 35c | 144.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73c4…e681backed Royals | 36c | 140.67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb389…abf8backed Yankees | 65c | 140.09$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yankees | 63c | 129.89$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa416…d8ddbacked Royals | 37c | 109.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3693…c9afbacked Royals | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4471…e986backed Royals | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47a…ae11backed Yankees | 65c | 61.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d4…e256backed Yankees | 66c | 60.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked Royals | 35c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yankees | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84e9…e2ecbacked Royals | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Royals | 34c | 49.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc465…fcfbbacked Yankees | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Royals | 37c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 457 | 32.2%147 W · 310 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2206…943dbacked Royals | 37c | 38.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf957…054ebacked Yankees | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb10a…140ebacked Royals | 37c | 30.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5b…655ebacked Yankees | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb1…b2c2backed Yankees | 67c | 27.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x90a2…cd8abacked Yankees | 66c | 23.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b96…f366backed Yankees | 66c | 22.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x274d…dc57backed Yankees | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.