Fifa International · resolved market
Will Venezuela win?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a0f317cce65f797fa632d21ea2914d43810300baac869d2236565fa95bcc124
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 45c | 767.08$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.08 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…a7b7backed Yes | 55c | 727.27$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb0…e595backed No | 46c | 126.3$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 40c | 114.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba7…c0edbacked Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c1…c9cfbacked Yes | 66c | 75.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e9…de83backed Yes | 57c | 59.29$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…1095backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.