Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Wisconsin vs. Michigan
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc21efc5b863b4a9f79b74bdee46a114bed7e2df55f2d309a17a0b6e73a80968c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michiganof Wisconsin, Michigan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $280,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $289,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $280,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa47a…fd11backed Wisconsin | 62c | 16,772$10,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,468.36 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…910cbacked Wisconsin | 64c | 16,407$10,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,573.61 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80a5…f9babacked Michigan | 38c | 12,580$4,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,837.9 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…3e11backed Michigan | 48c | 9,441$4,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,902.26 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Michigan | 38c | 6,811$2,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,241.21 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e81…843cbacked Wisconsin | 64c | 6,222$4,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,002.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Michigan | 36c | 5,500$2,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,495 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Wisconsin | 59c | 5,077$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 415 | 54.2%225 W · 190 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe81…5fe9backed Wisconsin | 61c | 4,411$2,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,691.24 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Michigan | 37c | 2,604$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,648.51 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00e2…d56abacked Wisconsin | 61c | 2,340$1,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,427.27 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Michigan | 35c | 1,947$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,265.78 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Michigan | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 391 | 44.5%174 W · 217 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Michigan | 36c | 628.01$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.12 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Wisconsin | 17c | 572.14$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.41 | 399 | 3.3%13 W · 386 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Michigan | 37c | 496.4$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.86 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ae…52edbacked Wisconsin | 61c | 494.98$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba01…1ebabacked Wisconsin | 61c | 492$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed Michigan | 40c | 466.69$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.91 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +131.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0025…6ca8backed Wisconsin | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Wisconsin | 61c | 300$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x416f…18d8backed Wisconsin | 64c | 300$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c03…8b7bbacked Michigan | 39c | 287.5$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.38 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Wisconsin | 62c | 263.2$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.18 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Wisconsin | 61c | 260$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.6 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Michigan | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Wisconsin | 62c | 166$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.8 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Michigan | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Michigan | 36c | 132$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.48 | 160 | 53.8%86 W · 74 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Michigan | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 84 | 63.1%53 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Michigan | 41c | 121.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.39 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3442…bee5backed Michigan | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Wisconsin | 61c | 105$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | -7.2wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Wisconsin | 64c | 101.71$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 247 | 59.5%147 W · 100 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Michigan | 36c | 100.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.56 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Michigan | 37c | 100.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.06 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…decbbacked Michigan | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef9…35cfbacked Wisconsin | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Michigan | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 104 | 29.8%31 W · 73 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1268…b757backed Michigan | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked Michigan | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Michigan | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…6802backed Michigan | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Wisconsin | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x494f…ca12backed Wisconsin | 64c | 87.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…d072backed Michigan | 39c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Michigan | 39c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Wisconsin | 62c | 64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Michigan | 38c | 62.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.79 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Michigan | 41c | 61.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Wisconsin | 65c | 53.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 556 | 57.4%319 W · 237 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Wisconsin | 65c | 50.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…aa01backed Wisconsin | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 74cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…fec6backed Wisconsin | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Michigan | 36c | 44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 348 | 42.8%149 W · 199 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…21ebbacked Wisconsin | 71c | 42.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Wisconsin | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd13…a813backed Wisconsin | 59c | 41.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed Michigan | 31c | 33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b3…6ed8backed Wisconsin | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.