China Taiwan · resolved market
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fce1292bea6748addd9a96632ab7455f64028671816e964a692686573079574
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,672,418
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,065,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,672,418 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 595 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x011d…3d2fbacked Yes | 2c | 515,286$9,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,110.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 5c | 231,854$10,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,964.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b68…2c57backed Yes | 7c | 201,558$15,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,003.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…d319backed Yes | 10c | 132,297$13,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,842.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…2e19backed Yes | 7c | 100,000$6,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,839.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18f…294cbacked Yes | 7c | 90,756$6,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,246.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f5…9663backed Yes | 7c | 76,307$5,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,553.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…25a8backed Yes | 12c | 60,501$7,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,239.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ea…4e21backed Yes | 10c | 55,860$5,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,529.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 7c | 51,241$3,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,550.13 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +286.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 4c | 49,120$1,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,773.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 10c | 42,928$4,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,118.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x924d…a4f2backed Yes | 9c | 40,799$3,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,671.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe621…8b0cbacked Yes | 3c | 37,956$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…9754backed Yes | 2c | 31,000$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2964…ea1ebacked Yes | 1c | 30,525$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…f38ebacked Yes | 5c | 30,379$1,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,638.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 29,095$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1da…8f6abacked Yes | 11c | 27,831$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69a2…596fbacked Yes | 3c | 27,278$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7014…678bbacked Yes | 6c | 25,575$1,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,581.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 6c | 24,762$1,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,554.57 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 23,343$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.03 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2db2…858ebacked Yes | 0c | 22,906$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87fd…c5f0backed Yes | 9c | 22,774$2,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,004.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15f4…c17fbacked Yes | 10c | 21,310$2,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,131 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x667c…1438backed Yes | 6c | 20,952$1,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…da79backed Yes | 7c | 19,398$1,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,262.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 10c | 19,324$1,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,894.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39ce…804abacked Yes | 3c | 18,511$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef8…1116backed Yes | 2c | 16,431$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…7b74backed Yes | 9c | 16,013$1,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,516.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…f2c3backed Yes | 8c | 12,610$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 4c | 12,596$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 11c | 12,546$1,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,364.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57fe…748cbacked Yes | 10c | 11,775$1,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,142.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…efc0backed Yes | 4c | 11,694$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 9c | 11,374$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.19 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb372…5fdebacked Yes | 11c | 11,007$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07a2…812abacked Yes | 4c | 10,930$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x052c…d6b9backed Yes | 4c | 10,576$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…ccb0backed Yes | 3c | 10,203$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda74…0ecdbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d2…9eb7backed Yes | 11c | 9,793$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba15…fbdcbacked Yes | 10c | 9,361$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 8c | 7,724$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 0c | 7,328$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65e7…1699backed Yes | 14c | 7,297$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34e3…6adcbacked Yes | 3c | 7,143$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…3e7cbacked Yes | 2c | 6,804$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8946…1b70backed Yes | 8c | 6,757$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef5…3cb5backed Yes | 9c | 6,435$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 2c | 6,377$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked Yes | 1c | 6,049$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…7948backed Yes | 17c | 6,027$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0cd…1409backed Yes | 3c | 5,838$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc60…ffacbacked Yes | 7c | 5,749$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c68…4bd0backed Yes | 3c | 5,601$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…2e62backed Yes | 19c | 5,358$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 6c | 5,342$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db7…dcedbacked Yes | 3c | 5,093$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9da1…7086backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…353bbacked Yes | 7c | 4,980$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a17…7d00backed Yes | 2c | 4,900$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed Yes | 1c | 4,781$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e5…109bbacked Yes | 4c | 4,776$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2399…6522backed Yes | 8c | 4,564$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fff…5c5ebacked Yes | 10c | 4,512$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd36a…5bc2backed Yes | 11c | 4,475$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf061…dc44backed Yes | 16c | 4,458$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd7…0b65backed Yes | 11c | 4,310$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…8c3bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,261$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f79…0e27backed Yes | 16c | 4,086$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dea…bd23backed Yes | 20c | 4,079$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 5c | 3,849$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fe…96d7backed Yes | 1c | 3,787$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…82cfbacked Yes | 1c | 3,622$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes | 2c | 3,620$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d9…291bbacked Yes | 14c | 3,614$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 5c | 3,500$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 3c | 3,500$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…c44bbacked Yes | 14c | 3,467$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c74…073ebacked Yes | 15c | 3,451$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c54…99bebacked Yes | 3c | 3,401$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…dcdabacked Yes | 19c | 3,397$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e6…1d2bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,230$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd302…b32abacked Yes | 16c | 3,177$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…d68fbacked Yes | 5c | 3,140$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4df…7f8ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,104$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3252…4666backed Yes | 4c | 3,062$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c63…ab50backed Yes | 7c | 3,043$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75da…4688backed Yes | 4c | 3,000$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7851backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3873…8511backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6550…b49ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,932$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x797b…9793backed Yes | 14c | 2,727$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507d…492dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,704$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…502ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,701$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c5…9559backed Yes | 2c | 2,688$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.