Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet between 80-99 times?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f5a6fc4357592beacc8d730a26122f658dfa3e02cfefbf6ae4686e18a04a258
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25d6…0b9cbacked Yes | 26c | 3,193$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,368.28 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 30c | 1,205$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.11 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 33c | 947.09$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.81 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 32c | 679.07$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.11 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…ef88backed Yes | 8c | 614.42$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.22 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 49c | 581.95$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.31 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fe…c728backed Yes | 37c | 535.2$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…67a9backed Yes | 67c | 508.1$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.2 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…d19cbacked No | 39c | 417$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.01 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6c…9047backed No | 46c | 400.15$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.04 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…7befbacked Yes | 30c | 337.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb0…cbd0backed No | 50c | 309$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…d297backed Yes | 19c | 239.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.52 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d22…76b6backed Yes | 64c | 223.63$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked No | 64c | 202.78$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.47 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 14c | 199$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.15 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 75c | 196$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked Yes | 16c | 186$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.95 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 75c | 172$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.59 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 17c | 162$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.96 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c4…aad3backed Yes | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf38…c330backed Yes | 74c | 134.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 31c | 111.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.03 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x62cc…cfc2backed Yes | 16c | 105$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab7…7177backed No | 79c | 92.6$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa956…2655backed Yes | 78c | 91.28$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…12debacked Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1728…d4b6backed Yes | 29c | 82.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc733…6293backed No | 61c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x666d…03d1backed Yes | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49e8…ce4ebacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x041d…d091backed No | 79c | 51.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba3f…8b64backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe329…b3a8backed No | 55c | 47.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…c7f9backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…3c11backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed No | 40c | 31.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 65cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b70…20a3backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet between 80-99 times?this page
- Will Elon tweet between 100-109 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 110-119 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 120-129 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 130-139 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 140-159 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 160-179 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 180 or more times?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 60-79 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 60 times?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.