Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet less than 60 times?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa59e8574fc79cb617f548d55b36d2b642da2a602210592574dd0ca5c861fd68b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,049
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,049 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 7 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Yes | 0c | 21,950$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Yes | 1c | 1,927$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…ef88backed Yes | 4c | 1,699$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ec…ba7bbacked Yes | 4c | 999.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…d297backed Yes | 8c | 619.59$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0e…9b75backed Yes | 4c | 238.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb0…7326backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet less than 60 times?this page
- Will Elon tweet between 100-109 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 110-119 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 120-129 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 130-139 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 140-159 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 160-179 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 180 or more times?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 60-79 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 80-99 times?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.