NBA · resolved market
NBA Finals Game 2: Celtics vs. Mavericks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fa1e991ce215276b6f285bc6c41f243dc1c4b5d787bd6e4e02e18d097b290e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Celtics, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,665
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,665 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Celtics | 71c | 4,555$3,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,325.12 | 191 | 52.4%100 W · 91 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x734d…b810backed Mavericks | 31c | 4,318$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x744c…e37fbacked Celtics | 71c | 3,049$2,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.26 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Mavericks | 28c | 3,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.99 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Celtics | 70c | 2,843$1,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.11 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…20cbbacked Mavericks | 26c | 2,288$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.83 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…b944backed Mavericks | 29c | 2,250$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.62 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6b…125fbacked Mavericks | 29c | 2,070$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Celtics | 74c | 1,690$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.62 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7f…bd2ebacked Celtics | 70c | 1,503$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c0…6b87backed Mavericks | 29c | 1,205$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.33 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Mavericks | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…d7c2backed Celtics | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa194…0351backed Mavericks | 31c | 955.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Mavericks | 28c | 851.31$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.76 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Celtics | 72c | 800$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Celtics | 69c | 721.61$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.7 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -10.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Celtics | 69c | 604.11$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.95 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2767…ffb2backed Mavericks | 30c | 599.98$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1648…af86backed Mavericks | 6c | 593.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +113.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6572…786bbacked Mavericks | 21c | 581.66$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf0…0540backed Celtics | 72c | 538.89$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…ae23backed Celtics | 71c | 535.52$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed Celtics | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Mavericks | 31c | 450$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0581…92b9backed Mavericks | 30c | 446.67$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -51%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd05f…949cbacked Celtics | 72c | 386.42$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Mavericks | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1,090 | 35.8%390 W · 700 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x046c…8ca3backed Celtics | 73c | 275.3$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.69 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad38…73ccbacked Celtics | 72c | 273.74$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…c639backed Mavericks | 33c | 268.56$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…1959backed Mavericks | 30c | 240$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1202…6395backed Mavericks | 29c | 237.9$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbee9…385ebacked Celtics | 72c | 231.94$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdf…aa6ebacked Mavericks | 30c | 228.28$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff5…b966backed Mavericks | 30c | 200.24$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…d337backed Celtics | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Celtics | 69c | 199.98$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.99 | 202 | 45.5%92 W · 110 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…53f5backed Celtics | 71c | 195.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec4…617cbacked Celtics | 72c | 166.67$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bc…8edfbacked Celtics | 73c | 158.9$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x757b…62c8backed Mavericks | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…2216backed Celtics | 72c | 147.69$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42c2…498ebacked Celtics | 72c | 144.68$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.51 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Mavericks | 45c | 133.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.23 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3c…d1a8backed Mavericks | 30c | 130.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a0…16e9backed Mavericks | 29c | 124.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 718 | 23.3%167 W · 551 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ca…7094backed Celtics | 69c | 110$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8844…b672backed Mavericks | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5152…4838backed Mavericks | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +983.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9224…a1e2backed Mavericks | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Mavericks | 28c | 92.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -40%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1325…e491backed Mavericks | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Mavericks | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2162…4dc7backed Celtics | 72c | 75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed Mavericks | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba41…095cbacked Celtics | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…71adbacked Mavericks | 32c | 55.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c01…4412backed Mavericks | 30c | 55.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Mavericks | 29c | 46.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…4f20backed Mavericks | 31c | 44.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe2…42c9backed Mavericks | 30c | 41.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…fc8ebacked Celtics | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…e51dbacked Celtics | 73c | 41.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c86…593bbacked Mavericks | 30c | 37.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aed…8573backed Celtics | 70c | 31.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3390…9c87backed Mavericks | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c5…c8ddbacked Celtics | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc21…113bbacked Celtics | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8976…b2a7backed Celtics | 70c | 27.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Celtics | 64c | 26.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45a7…395fbacked Celtics | 68c | 17.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.