NFL · resolved market
Will the Bears hire Ben Johnson as their next head coach?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fc9a057ae300746e13f452959b9b9a0a6122bca7ec53ed36332d67be969b93b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 8c | 1,112$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.39 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe77c…a67abacked Yes | 44c | 349.42$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.61 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 4c | 318.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 51 | 7.8%4 W · 47 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 206.41$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.66 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 57c | 125$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 143 | 42%60 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 28c | 118$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.44 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.7 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 42c | 99.17$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 77 | 18.2%14 W · 63 L | -11.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 23c | 94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.66 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 36c | 82.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.61 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +56%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed No | 59c | 74.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 56c | 58.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c33…c968backed No | 54c | 55.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…3e65backed Yes | 43c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…5ff0backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 55c | 21.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bears hire Ben Johnson as their next head coach?this page
- Will the Bears hire Aaron Glenn as their next head coach?No won
- Will the Bears hire Anthony Weaver as their next head coach?No won
- Will the Bears hire Brian Flores as their next head coach?No won
- Will the Bears hire Drew Petzing as their next head coach?No won
- Will the Bears hire Kliff Kingsbury as their next head coach?No won
- Will the Bears hire Mike McCarthy as their next head coach?No won
- Will the Bears hire Mike Vrabel as their next head coach?No won
- Will the Bears hire Thomas Brown as their next head coach?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.