MLB · resolved market
AL Wildcard: Royals vs. Orioles
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc26223a4fba66d63dc67e8e24d141c56479a33be8c99318c5ad9afa7896418b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Royalsof Royals, Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Orioles | 4c | 11,107$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.24 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Royals | 55c | 4,000$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Orioles | 59c | 3,503$2,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,076.21 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Royals | 52c | 998.44$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.25 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Royals | 54c | 690$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.4 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Royals | 41c | 454.46$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.22 | 103 | 28.2%29 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Royals | 41c | 358.71$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.64 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcb…a83bbacked Orioles | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Orioles | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Royals | 51c | 196.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.61 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +6.6wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Orioles | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…9c6abacked Royals | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 52cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Orioles | 57c | 79.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e6…ec7ebacked Royals | 43c | 76.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…eccabacked Orioles | 59c | 74.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72a4…4e32backed Orioles | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Orioles | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Orioles | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Orioles | 41c | 48.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Royals | 49c | 46.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Orioles | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…636abacked Orioles | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Orioles | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.