Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 180 or more times?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcec9fbf4f190abcdee8240ce1070f6f175bbd3c77deffb74f9a236edb19c8c34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,074
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,074 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x76e4…c5aebacked Yes | 49c | 6,391$3,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,246.76 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…abd2backed No | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed No | 52c | 2,671$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,379.67 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf180…09b5backed Yes | 59c | 2,472$1,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.9 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 25c | 2,113$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.74 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked No | 26c | 1,815$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0705…9dfcbacked Yes | 37c | 1,729$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.26 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x660f…ec30backed Yes | 58c | 1,501$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.62 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 18c | 1,356$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.08 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +187%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab7…c3eebacked Yes | 32c | 1,205$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.38 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 20c | 1,118$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.25 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 16c | 1,092$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.53 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked No | 50c | 999$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.5 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…d297backed No | 61c | 914.92$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.89 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdd…0b07backed No | 2c | 905.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 12c | 749.49$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.84 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bba…9b86backed No | 27c | 747$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.59 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed No | 42c | 700.75$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.41 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1243…fb64backed Yes | 61c | 612.62$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed No | 60c | 548.72$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.86 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 61c | 511.05$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.77 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Yes | 35c | 500$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…b167backed Yes | 44c | 457.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc2…a9ebbacked Yes | 79c | 422.19$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb805…9e99backed Yes | 56c | 399.37$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.72 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8189…dad2backed No | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 79c | 336$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.1 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 20c | 335$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.01 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ceb…4790backed Yes | 48c | 332.11$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.09 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x464c…bdbabacked Yes | 12c | 322$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.84 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6c…9047backed Yes | 34c | 318.75$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.86 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 70c | 318.02$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.9 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d4…8c0dbacked Yes | 60c | 304.05$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.72 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7105…c107backed Yes | 45c | 272.04$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed No | 52c | 270.97$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.24 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…83d8backed Yes | 11c | 228$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.92 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…0312backed Yes | 56c | 220.26$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3a…d194backed Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08c4…aad3backed No | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 41c | 177.26$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.75 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…548fbacked Yes | 61c | 167.81$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.18 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed No | 16c | 146.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 14cpaid | +251.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x91e6…a564backed Yes | 32c | 142.39$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb818…bc56backed Yes | 52c | 105.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa120…5582backed Yes | 19c | 105.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5dc…0d98backed Yes | 16c | 103.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.75 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 34c | 99.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.08 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…9695backed Yes | 77c | 98$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62cc…9d0fbacked No | 46c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8f…118fbacked No | 48c | 69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4d…cd61backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x003e…840ebacked Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3c…1613backed Yes | 58c | 65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…c9b5backed No | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1cc…e644backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef0…f1a9backed Yes | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…b3febacked Yes | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…4952backed No | 38c | 48.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…ee3dbacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21a7…1aeebacked Yes | 57c | 38.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec91…6c50backed Yes | 60c | 35.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7e…331fbacked Yes | 64c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011d…458dbacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2e…8b5dbacked Yes | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…cf14backed Yes | 50c | 23.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb503…715cbacked No | 66c | 23.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 78c | 21.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd492…66e7backed Yes | 80c | 21.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x096d…e340backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f56…ccd7backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 180 or more times?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100-109 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 110-119 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120-129 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 130-139 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 140-149 times?-sept-6No won
- Will Elon tweet 150-159 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 160-179 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 80-99 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 80 times?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.