Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
North Carolina vs. Duke
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59fddba117a37ef3579586eb17e512789559bbedeebb1307528ec06b85fd1017
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dukeof North Carolina, Duke
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5314…910cbacked North Carolina | 14c | 19,086$2,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,735.41 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80a5…f9babacked North Carolina | 23c | 7,684$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Duke | 74c | 2,781$2,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.25 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Duke | 75c | 625$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.25 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ded…ba6cbacked North Carolina | 29c | 578.57$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed North Carolina | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Duke | 72c | 231.01$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.68 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Duke | 73c | 204.98$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.68 | 168 | 42.3%71 W · 97 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed North Carolina | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Duke | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Duke | 72c | 178.57$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Duke | 76c | 104.92$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed North Carolina | 24c | 78.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked North Carolina | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 348 | 42.8%149 W · 199 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Duke | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 84 | 63.1%53 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Duke | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 247 | 59.5%147 W · 100 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.